新摩爾時代的晶圓代工競爭力分析與因應方案

Abstract

台灣半導體發展至今40年，透過產業的群聚效應造就了台灣半導體產業的興盛。根據工研院IEK預估2016年台灣半導體產業的產值達新台幣24,328億元（USD $ 74.9B），相較於2015年則成長了7.5%。而晶圓製造與代工服務更使台灣成為全世界最強大的半導體產業研發與生產基地，IEK預估2016年台灣半導體在製造方面產值達新台幣13,117億元（USD $ 40.1B），相較2015年成長6.6%，其中晶圓代工產值為新台幣11,345億元（USD 34.6B），相較2015年成長12.4%。 2014年，台積電董事長暨 TSIA 名譽理事長張忠謀博士在TSIA年會時認為下一個「Big Thing」可能就是物聯網（Internet of Thing–IoT）。但在摩爾定律發展逐漸遇到瓶頸，三星電子也加入晶圓代工行列，且中國廠商在政府政策性的扶植下追趕，台灣IC製造廠商要如何因應，以鞏固既有市佔率，增加獲利，以支應高階製程的研發費用。這裡面包含是否繼續研發更先進奈米級（10奈米以下）的技術（More Moore），以延長競爭對手趕上的時間。另外如何善用既有成熟製程（28奈米以上），來提供超越摩爾定律的技術（More than Moore），以因應IoT產品開發的需要。 本研究發現半導體已進入新摩爾時代（More Moore + More than Moore）。對技術領導者，將會繼續追尋摩爾定律（More Moore）的發展，來建立技術障礙。並透過半世代製程（Half Node）的研發來延長既有高階技術（28奈米以下）的壽命，提升投資報酬率。同時也會善用既有成熟技術（28奈米以上），來開發特殊製程（Specialty），增加獲利。而透過工業4.0的智能製造技術，也將是未來提升半導體製造良率與效率的一項利器。

Taiwan's semiconductor industry has grown to NT $ 24,328 billion (USD $ 74.9B) in 2016 after 40 years’ development, up 7.5% from 2015, according to IEK/ITRI. Key contribution to the rise of Taiwan's semiconductor industry is “Industrial Clustering Effect”. The wafer manufacturing and foundry services make Taiwan become the industry's most powerful R&D and production base in the world. IEK estimates Taiwan's IC manufacturing output in 2016 reached NT $ 13,117 billion (USD $ 40.1B), which grew faster than 2015 6.6%, of which the foundry was NT $ 1,134.5 billion (USD $ 34.6B), up 12.4% from 2015. In 2014, TSMC Chairman and TSIA Honorary Chairman Dr. Zhang Zhongmou at the TSIA annual meeting mentioned that the next "Big Thing" may be the Internet of Things (IoT). But in the development of Moore's Law gradually encountered bottlenecks, Samsung Electronics also joined the ranks of foundry, and the Chinese manufacturers are in the government policy to support the catch up. Taiwan IC manufacturers how to respond, to consolidate the market share, and to increase the profit for supporting the high-end process R&D costs are very important. This includes 1) whether to continue to develop more advanced nanoscale (10 nm) technology (More Moore), to extend the time for competitors to catch up. 2) How to use the existing mature process (28 nm or more), to provide beyond Moore's Law (More than Moore), in response to the needs of IoT product development. This study found that the semiconductor industry has entered into the new Moore era (More Moore + More than Moore). The technology leader will continue to pursue the development of Moore's Law to build technical barriers. Through the development of semi-generation process to extend the existing high-end technology (28 nm below) life for return-on-investment improvement. But also, make good use of mature technology （28 nm or more）to develop a special process for expanding their applications area and increase profits. Furthure more, through the industrial 4.0 intelligent manufacturing technology, will also be a valid weapon to enhance the semiconductor manufacturing yield and efficiency.