自由現金流量對企業價值影響之實證研究－以台灣半導體產業上市公司為例

Abstract

自由現金流量假說的應用，是近年來財務管理學界相當熱門的議題。透過自由現金流量的計算，配合適切地財務比率，將有利於衡量企業本業的營運狀況，並瞭解股價變化的動向。本研究針對9家台灣半導體產業上市公司，利用統計學的變異數分析、迴歸分析等方法，進行實證研究。期望能透過自由現金流量的觀點、修正現有的財務比率，藉以分析企業經營各構面，並比較其與使用一般的財務比率對企業市場價格變動的解釋能力。研究期間涵蓋民國82年至87年，共計6年。 研究結果整理如下： 1.自由現金流量對股價變動的影響，以財務報表公布時的影響最為顯著，且影響力會隨時間遞移而遞減。 2.對於不同企業，利用自由現金流量所修正的財務比率具有顯著不同的解釋能力；且在時間點不同時，利用自由現金流量所修正的財務比率亦對同一企業具有顯著不同的解釋能力。 3.自由現金流量愈多的企業，其經營能力、獲利能力與償債能力，與股價變動情形較為相關。自由現金流量愈少的企業，其股價變動，則受到財務結構、經營能力、成長能力與償債能力的影響較巨。 4.規模較大的企業，其自由現金流量較少。反之，規模較小的企業，則擁有較多的自由現金流量，且其資金、資源運用的效率性亦較差。

In recent years, the free cash flow hypothesis impassioned in the domain of the finance management in Taiwan. Using the free cash flow (FCF) and financial ratios avail to evaluate the operation condition of the specialty field in the enterprise and to realize the trend of the stock price. This research compares the explanation abilities between the financial ratios revised by the free cash flow and the general financial ratios on the stock price and on the operation condition of the enterprise. The samples of this research are the listed companies in the semiconductor industry of Taiwan stock market. The sampling period is from 1993 to 1998. The results of the study can be summarized as follow: 1.The major effect of the free cash flow on the variation of the stock price appears at the time the finance statement be published and decreases with time. 2.The financial ratios have significantly different ability of explanation to the different enterprises at the same time and the same enterprise at different times. 3.With more free cash flow, the operation ability, profitability and liquidation ability of the enterprise have the significantly correlation with the variation of the stock price. With less free cash flow, the finance condition, operation ability, growth ability and liquidation ability of the enterprise have the significantly correlation with the variation of the stock price.