利用Sen-Smith方法推估起迄流量表

Abstract

隨著都市發展、人口及運具大量增長及土地使用上之變遷，交通建設之新建及改善更顯得重要，因此運輸規劃也成了一項重要議題。在運輸規劃中旅次起迄流量表推估為其重要之步驟，對於路網設計、費率訂定與營運分析為不可或缺之重要參考值。過去推估多組起迄對時容易出現失真或趨勢不符之情況，因此本研究旨在發展一能符合資料趨勢之起迄流量表推估模式，以起點、迄點流量及各起迄對間之距離，藉由改善Sen-Smith 方法，其中包含Hyman方法及Deming-Stephan-Furness疊代程序以推估起迄流量表。 首先，透過高速鐵路各站旅客人次資料了解過去Sen-Smith 旅次分布推估方法，其必須藉由已知之起迄點流量表來校估阻抗函數參數，然在真實情況下真實之起迄流量表較難取得，因此本研究針對此部分進行改善，改善Hyman方法的起始值且接續之Deming-Stephan-Furness疊代程序的起始值也改由Hyman方法獲得，藉此可減少運算之疊代次數。另外，本研究以Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)檢定為基礎進行改良，提出一允許特定誤差值之統計檢定，用以檢定樣本趨勢是否相符。最後，將模式運用於大樣本推估國道一號及國道三號高速公路起迄流量表，結果顯示透過本研究模式推估之結果能符合真實之交通趨勢。

With the development of urban city, the growth of population and transportation mode and the change of land use, the improvement and construction of transportation are much more important, therefore, transportation planning has become an important issue. Estimation of O-D matrices is an important step for transportation planning. It’s an essential part of network design, fare setting and operation analysis. Past methods faced the problem with accuracy and fitting of pattern. In this paper, we propose an estimation method which can fit the pattern though traffic counts of origin and destination and the cost matrix of the network. We improve Sen-Smith method, included Hyman method and Deming-Stephan-Furness procedure. To calibrate the parameter of deterrence function, Sen-Smith method required a set of known O-D matrices. However, a set of known O-D matrices are difficult to find. To solve the problem mentioned previously in this study, we change the initial value of Hyman method, and the initial values of DSF procedure are also altered, which can reduce the number of iterations of the DSF procedure. In addition, we develop a statistical test which allows a specifit error tolerance of data based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Numerical examples display in this study shows that the method of our research can fit the real traffic pattern.