臺灣金融市場與制度發展對產業垂直整合之影響分析

Abstract

本研究立基於Acemoglu et al.(2009) 及M-I-T理論架構典範，以研究臺灣金融發展與制度規範對於產業垂直整合之影響。本研究歸納文獻以形成原始命題：當金融發展、制度改進以及資訊科技互為獨立變數時，對產業垂直整合各具顯著正面影響，是為模型一。驗證性命題涉及變數具交互影響關係：故模型二為當三類變數僅具兩兩交互關聯性，對於產業垂直整合的影響，並驗證命題二：金融發展、制度改進以及資訊科技兩兩變數之相關性對於臺灣產業垂直整合具顯著正面影響力。模型三則進一步認定三類變數間具交互關聯性，對於產業垂直整合的影響，並驗證命題三：金融發展、制度改進以及資訊科技變數之間的關聯性對於臺灣產業垂直整合具顯著且正面影響效果。本研究以臺灣資料佐證產業垂直整合、金融發展與制度規範等三項邏輯變數來建立研究模型，並以結構方程模型之動差結構分析方法進行驗證分析。本研究發現兩兩配對解釋的模型二實證結果與Acemoglu et al.(2009)相符合，受模型配制度支持但模型結構卻不具支持度。然而模型三之驗證，不僅通過結構支持測驗，且配適性更是三種模型中數值最高。故本研究捨棄模型一級模型二的結果，逕行接受模型三的實證研究，代表以金融發展、制度改進以及資訊科技三大因素之間的交互運作關係，成功解釋臺灣的產業垂直整合。本研究之實證結果，同時支持承立平(2009)所提出的M-I-T理論架構典範，從而驗證市場與組織為影響產業發展的兩大主要因素。

Based on theories developed by Acemoglu et al. (2009) and Cheng (2009), this thesis analyzes the impacts of financial developments and institutions on the vertical integrations in the case of Taiwan. By identifying appropriate variables, three propositions are verified: [1] the financial developments, institutions and information technology as three independent variables, have significantly positive impacts on the vertical integrations of industries, [2] the interactions between two of the three variables have significantly positive impacts on the vertical integrations of industries, and [3] the interactions between the three variables have significantly positive impacts on the vertical integrations of industries. This thesis thus constructs three models for testing the propositions. Model fitness is the key measure for the implication of representative variables and the fitness test supports the interactions between paired variables as critical explanations of impacts of financial developments and institutions on the vertical integrations of industries. Despite model fitness, the second model is not appropriate due to low robust in structural test. However the third model passes both the fitness test and structural test, indicating that the model constructed under the M-I-T paradigm is logically consistent. The results of the three models not only show that the interactions between the developments, the institutions and the information and communication technologies used by financial industries are essential to explain the vertical integrations of industries in Taiwan, but also validate the M-I-T paradigm.