油料價格對台北市旅次特性影響之研究

Abstract

雖然目前油料價格有下跌的趨勢，然而就長遠的觀點來看，石油缺乏的危機依然存在。若石油用罄，替代能源又不能即時發明，車輛無法行動，則人們現有的生活結構可能會完全崩潰。即使在這個過程中，石油供應量逐漸減少，如何採取適當措施，調整交通工具之供應比例，維持現有旅次所需之供應數量，以維繫各種活動之正常運行，亦為非常重要之事。本研究即在這個背景下探討油料價格對台北市旅次特性之自然變化，以做為策略評估與方案選取的參考。 本研究以台北市旅次分配之現狀為輸入資料，經由各類交通工具使用者問卷調查之系統分析後，得出不同油料價格下各類交通工具承擔旅次情形，綜合起來即為油料價格變化後之台北市旅次分配狀況，與台北市旅次分配之現況相互比較，即得出油料價格對台北市旅次特性之影響。 本研究得出結果，在各類交通工具使用者對油料價格上漲的因應措施中，以轉乘其它交通工具對各類交通工具承擔旅次數的影響最大，其次為減少旅次次數，再其次為變更旅次目的地。而油料價格上漲對各類交通工具而言，小汽車、機車與計程車三種交通工具的承擔旅次次數，會隨著油料價格的上漲而減少，其減少旅次的比例依次為計程車、小汽車、機車。公車旅次在油料價格上漲幅度較小時，其承擔旅次數稍微減少，在油料價格上漲幅度較大時，其承擔旅次數則有增加的現象，其增加的比例甚為有限。對腳踏車旅次而言，油料價格上漲，由於其它交通工具轉移旅次的影響，會使得腳踏車承擔的旅次數隨著油料價格而增加，其增加旅次的長度大多在1-2公里，而且都在10公里以下。

Although oil price is in decreacing trend now, but oil crisis is still exist on longtime viewpoint. If oil is exhaused and replaced energy cannot be invented in timel, Cars will be useless and maybe the existing social system will wholly collapse that time. Even in this duration, oil production decrease steply, How to find proper action, like adjust vehicle supllied propertion, to maintain our daily communication, is a very important thing. Under these backgrouds, this paper survey the natural change of trip characters in Taipei city when oil price increased, and can be used as a reference of policy analysis and alternatives choosing when oil crisis happen. This study use present mode trips in Taipei city as input data. And get various mode's trips duder difference oil price by road-side interview investigation of mode user, compare these with present modal split, we can obtain the influence on trip characters of oil price in Taipei city. The rseult of this study is as following: That the most large influenced factor upon trips by the responsed action of mode user when oil price arised is mode users tranfer their trips to another mode, then comes mode users decrease their trip quantity, the least is trip makers change their trip end. For the trips of various mode, car, motorcycle and taxi will decrease their beared trips as oil price increased, the rank of decreased propertion is taxi, car, motorcycle. Bustrips will be slightly decreased when oil price arise a little, but will increase as oil price arise more, its increacing range is small. For the sake of other mode transfer their trips to bicycle, Bicycle trips will increase as oil price arised, the peak of increased trip length distribution is between 1 km to 2 km, and all under 10 km.