都市軌道運輸建設計畫優先性指標之研究

Abstract

台灣地狹人稠，都市之高密度發展為甚，因此需加強大眾運輸系統之發展。行政院經建會在每年度皆會根據該年度之政府軌道運輸類別之公共建設計畫邀請專家學者進行討論，對於該年度各計畫做出優先順序及經費調整之建議；而在進行計畫討論時，評選委員對各計畫實際內容與當地需求之了解可能極為有限，因此，評選委員如何在有限時間內作出判斷，決定各地都市軌道運輸計畫推動之優先順序，乃一重要之課題。

本研究經由文獻回顧與探討，分析歸納影響都市軌道運輸建設計畫優先性之準則；藉由專家問卷以了解決策人員對準則相對關係之看法以建構初步之優先性指標，並請決策人員對現有規劃推動之都市軌道運輸建設系統進行優先性評選，藉由方案排序結果進行優先性指標建構之修正，以求出一適合實際應用之都市軌道運輸系統優先性指標。

研究結果發現，經濟效益高、財務能力良好、環境影響衝擊小、當地民眾意願認同、配合相關重大建設計畫與促進區域均衡發展為影響計畫優先性之準則，而在指標之應用上，環境影響衝擊與民眾意願認同具有門檻意義，民眾對計畫推動之殷切程度、計畫配合相關重大建設與促進區域發展之表現對經濟效益有放大加成之效果；然在指標建立方面，本研究僅使用影響因素之代表變數建立指標，並未深入討論代表性變數與影響因素間之關係。本研究期能以此一優先性指標之建立，作為決策人員進行都市軌道運輸建設計畫優先性衡量之參考。

Because of Taiwan is a high population density country, so it have to develop our mass transportation. Each year The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) would invite transportation scholars and experts to decide the priorty of annual urban rail transportation projects and allocate budget on it. However, when making the decision, decision maker could hardly get through information of the projects and demand of the regions, therefore, how could decision maker make decion in finite time is an important issue.

This reserch analyze critera of urban rail transportation project priorty affection by review reference; apply AHP questionrary to realize the relative weight of criteria and the priorty of several planning projects; use these results to construct a priorty index to fit the consideration of decision makers.

According to this study, the priorty criteria of urban rail transportation project are: high economic benefit, good financial ability, less environmetal impact, identification of local resident, good co-ordination of relative projects, and improve the balance of region development.Apply to index, environment impact and local resident identification are essential element; identification of local resident, good co-ordination of relative projects, and improve the balance of region development should amplify project’s economic benefit; when establish the index, this research only use key variable of influence factor for the index but not discuss the relationship of the input variable and the influence factor. Hope this study could be a reference for decision makers.