產業結構特性對貨運需求之影響--以臺灣地區為例

Abstract

運輸需求是社會經濟活動的「衍生」需求，因此對於貨物運輸需求的 研究，除了運輸行為本身的特性（如費率、旅次長度、頻率等）外，亦須 從產業經濟學的角度著手；但是過去對貨運需求分析的研究中，卻甚少詳 細考慮「地區產業結構特性」（industrial st-ructure characters）的 影響。同時，「地區產業結構特性」亦是地區發展理論的一項重要因素， 但是過去在相關之研究中卻甚少討論到地區發展對貨運需求的影響。本研 究基於貨運需求、產業結構與地區發展三者間應有密切之關聯，因此欲從 理論面以及實例驗證，建立三者間之關聯。本研究從「地區產業結構特性 」的三個層面：產業規模（Scale）、產業發展重心（Share），以及產業 結構雜異度（Diversity）出發，針對貨運需求分析中的貨運旅次發生模 式與旅次分佈模式，提出理論假說，探討地區產業結構特性的各層面對貨 運旅次需求的影響；並以台灣地區為例，利用迴歸模型與重力模式，進行 理論假說的驗證，尤其著重在「產業結構雜異度」對貨運需求的影響。經 由實證模式的分析，本研究發現：1. 地區產業結構越趨向雜異化（ diversification），則貨運旅次需求會增加；2.貨運旅次需求為一動態 過程，隨時間與環境的改變，具有不同的模式，產業結構特性的影響亦隨 之而不同；3. 第三級產業（Tertiary Industry）對貨運旅次分佈模式有 顯著影響，是過去在程序性總體需求分析模式中所常被忽略的重要因素。 Transportation demand is the derived demand of social economy activities. Freight transportation demand must considers not only the travel characters offreight transportation but also the properties of industrial economies and lo-cal development. However, in the past the studies for freight transportation demand paid less attention on the effects of local industrial structure chara-cters and local developments. The purpose of this study is to establish the relationships among the freight transportation demand, industrial structure characters, and the local development in theory and reality. This study first establishes some hypotheses on the relationship of the trip production and thetrip distribution with the influence factors such as industrial scale, indus-trial share, and industrial structure diversity, and then discusses the effec-ts of these factors on freight transportation demand. In the example of Taiwan, this study uses the regression model and the gravity model to test the hypo-theses, especially about the effects of "industrial structure diversity" on the freight transportation demand. The empirical results show that: 1. As the local industrial structure becomes more diversified, the freight transportati-on demand becomes larger. 2. As time and the external environment change, the demand of transportation has different models and different effects of indus-trial structure. 3. Tretiary Industry has significant effects on freight trip distribution model, which has usually been ignored by the sequential aggregatedemand analysis.