評估高速鐵路網對可及性及社會效益之影響 -以泰國為例

Abstract

自二十世紀以來，高速鐵路(HSR)已成為許多國家最有效率的旅運方式之一，並扮演促進國家發展的重要推手。本研究以2011年為基準，比較於2011年至2041年 三十年間，實施與未實施高速鐵路兩種不同計畫的結果，推估其應用於曼谷及清邁周邊之運輸可及性。並試圖藉由分析可及性模式之變化，針對可能產生的改變進行經濟評估並解釋對經濟成長的可能產生的影響。 為考量實施與未實施高速鐵路的運輸路網情形與效益，將藉由旅運需求分析方法之三步驟以作為評估。首先，利用「旅次發生」公式以計算旅次成長率，作為預測30年後的旅次數量變化情形；次之，藉由羅吉特模式以獲得旅運者運具選擇之效用函數；第三，由前述所獲得之運具選擇機率推估平均旅行時間，以及藉由重力模式（旅次分布）之成本函數以推估平均旅行成本。經由上述，將得到校估之參數，亦可獲得有效之起迄端站。最後，藉由經濟性評估節省車輛營運成本、旅行時間、意外事故成本、環境成本等效益，以得知高鐵營運前後之旅次數量變化。 高鐵營運後整體的運輸成本勢必將減少；此外，由於新旅客的加入，此建設亦會對使用總人數呈現正向影響，過去習慣於現有運具的部分族群亦可能改搭高速鐵路。藉由觀察高速鐵路營運前後之旅運型態，以獲得現有運具轉移至搭乘高鐵旅次之資料，並藉此旅次結果推估高鐵之經濟效益。綜觀上述，本研究結果得知高速鐵路之營運將有利於泰國經濟發展與提升運輸可及性。

High speed rail is one of efficient travel modes in many countries since 20th century and major contributor to country development. This study aimed to evaluate the accessibility patterns on Bangkok-Vicinities and Chiang Mai corridor, comparing between without the HSR project (2011-2041) and with the HSR project (2017-2041). It investigates 30 years by which the base year is 2011. After analyze the changing of accessibility patterns, and then I use these changing results to connect with economic evaluation and explain the development. When consider the transport network in case of without HSR and with HSR, there are 3 steps of the process forming travel demand analysis. Firstly, I find the trip generation to predict the population and number of trip in the next 30 years by using growth rate equation. Secondly, I find the utility function of each transportation modes to get the probability of user to choose the choice of modes by using the basic logit model. Thirdly, after get the probability, and then I use it to find the average travel time and cost to use in the cost function F(Cij) which linked to Gravity model (Trip distribution). After get the estimated parameters, I can compute and get the OD pairs. Finally, the number of users changing from existing modes to HSR will connect to the economic model by analyzing the benefit of Vehicle Operating Cost Saving (VOCS), Vehicle of Time Saving (VOTS), Accident Cost Savings (ACCS) and Environmental Cost Savings (ENCS). The overall travel costs will decrease after HSR is shared in the transport market. In addition, the total number of users will be changed positively because of new travelers. Consequently, total number of trips could be changed from normal growth rate (without HSR) to new growth rate (with HSR). The different numbers of trips separated by modes between in case of without HSR and with HSR are the changing of passenger from existing modes diverting to HSR, these numbers are used in economic evaluation to find out many kind of benefits belonging to HSR project in term of money. Finally, the results in this research support that HSR project will increase development and accessibility pattern for Thailand.