應用模擬模型推算地震險之住宅建物損害率

Abstract

地震災屬於發生頻率低但損失幅度大的災害，據中央氣象局統計，自西元1900年至2002年，台灣地區發生之災害性地震共有94件，其中以民國八十八年九月二十一號發生芮氏規模達7.3之集集大地震為近百年來損害最嚴重的地震，其對全台造成51925戶房屋全毀、54442戶半毀，由此可見地震災害一旦發生不僅對個人在財產造成重大的損失亦對國家造成龐大的成本支出。 由於住宅是國民生活重心，若是遭受損毀將會對人民生活帶來影響，然而政府若是過度介入補救工程，會使國家稅收由非災區轉移到災區、非風險承擔者轉移到風險承擔者身上，造成其間的不公平發展，因此有效保障國民財產安全方法便是採用保險制度來分擔風險，雖然我國早在民國61年起便已開辦地震保險，但根據資料指出在集集地震災害中受保障的民眾仍不多，民國八十七年前投保地震保險戶數實際僅占約國內戶數的0.2％，我國在集集地震後重新制訂住宅地震保險制度，其保險費用採用單一保費，有違背保險之公平原則，由此可以看出新制地震險在建築物損害率方面缺乏明確的合理化且透明化的過程。 本研究擬以採用集集地震建築物實際受損資料，透過線性回歸分析方式建立各分類建築物在不同地震強度下的易損曲線，此外再由地震危害度分析之各震區參數，模擬地震事件發生，藉由模擬產生的地震事件配合各類建築物之易損曲線推算出未來我國住宅類建築物面臨地震之損害率，以提供保險業者計算地震費率之參考，亦可提供我國國民評估自身住宅在面臨地震災害之風險程度作為換屋之參考。

The frequency of earthquakes is low, but if earthquakes happen, it’ll cause great damage. The most disastrous earthquake happening was on September 21, 1999 of which the scale was 7.3 degree in Richter magnitude. It made 51,925 houses totally collapse, and 54,442 houses half collapse. As a result, when the earthquake happens, it will do great damage not only on individual property but on national disbursement. Buildings are the focuses of people’s life, the destroy of those will have great influence on people’s life. However, if the government interferes in reconstruction deeply, it will transfer the taxation of non-disaster area to disaster area, and so does the relationship between those who don’t bear risks and those who bear risks. The result is unfair, so the effective way to protect people’s property is to use insurance to bear risks. Although Taiwan has had earthquake insurance since 1972, the number of people who got amende wasn’t large. Taiwan repaired the earthquake insurance of buildings, but the price of it was regular, which was unfair. The lack of accurate legitimacy and clearness reveals from this process. This research collects the actual data from Chi-Chi earthquake, and build up the fragility curve of buildings in different earthquake intension by multiple regression analysis. Besides, simulate the happening of the earthquake from the parameter of Seismic Hazard Analysis of each earthquake section. By combining the simulation of earthquake with the fragility curve of all kinds of buildings, we can get the percent of damage when facing earthquakes to provide insurance companies to calculate the price of earthquake insurance. Also, it gives people the reference resources of changing houses when facing earthquakes.