航空貨運公司航線市場分析與頻次規劃研究

Abstract

世界經濟貿易發展朝向全球化自由競爭，許多國際性企業為提升競爭力，在衡量運送距離、時間與品質等因素後，愈來愈多廠商選擇以空運方式運送商品。台灣於2001年加入世界經濟貿易組織，對外貿易之重要性逐漸提高；另外，由於產業結構不斷改變，台灣由勞力密集之國家，轉變為科技導向，甚至多數廠商外移設廠於中國大陸地區，瞭解貨運市場轉變成為重要之議題。波音公司預測世界航空貨運之貨運量，在未來20年將增加為目前之三倍，平均年成長率約為6.2%，顯示航空貨運業的重要性日益明顯。過去文獻多僅探討個體運具選擇行為，或直接分析總體運量，而空運業規劃之研究鮮少以供需互動方式探討；本研究則考量個別產業選擇行為，再衡量產業結構變化，加總分析總體市場需求量，進而建構供需互動航線頻次規劃模式，分析空運業者最適單位基本運費以及航線班次。 本研究之模式由個體之觀點考量，構建國際航空貨運之貨主運送方式選擇模式，分析不同產業之廠商衡量其產品特性、運送急迫性、運送成本、存貨成本、運送時間及運送起迄點空間分布等因素，對各廠商選擇不同運具運送其產品之影響，以最小總運送成本為準則，分析貨主選擇空運公司之機率。然而各產業廠商之貨品運送起迄點空間分佈相異，產業內之產品價值亦有所差異，且產業結構隨著時間不斷改變；因此，本研究在考量時間變動與空間分佈下，進一步將個體模式擴展為總體市場，透過運送起迄點空間分布與衡量整體市場產業結構之動態變化，配合灰色預測模式預測各產業之空運量，分析研究範圍內航空運輸需求量之動態變化。引入長期之需求變動與供需互動，構建空運業者追求利潤最大化下之規劃模式，以決策空運公司各起迄對航線頻次與基本單位費率，提供業者更具因應環境改變與決策彈性之規劃。 本研究以台灣地區之中正國際機場實際運作資料進行案例分析，驗證本研究模式之可行性。研究結果顯示當運送距離短時，貨主較為重視運費因素，因為廠商所感受到的存貨成本較小，隨著高單位產品價格的貨品比例增加，選擇以高頻次運送貨品的機率增加。台北至美國安克拉治的運送距離較長，主要出口貨品為質輕價高的電子產品，貨主對於存貨成本的重視程度較高，因此提供高航線頻次的空運公司市場佔有率高。與不考量各產業變化之總量灰色預測模式預測之結果比較，本研究構建的需求模式，所預測之航空貨運量較為準確。供需互動之規劃模式結果亦顯示，由於台北至香港與至日本東京航線空運量仍有成長空間，可考慮略增單位運費以及每周班次，且透過本研究之規劃模式可使貨運公司總利潤增加。綜上所述，航空貨運公司可衡量主要市場航線與客戶特性，決策航線費率與班次，爭取有利航權，以獲取市場佔有率，並透過供需互動規劃模式，提高空運業者之利潤。

With the trend of world trade and free competition, many international industries deliver their goods by air transportation so as to improve their competition after considering shipping distance, time and quality. Taiwan took part in the World Trade Organization in 2001 to increase its competition in the world. Moreover, the structure of industries in Taiwan has been changing from labor intensive to technical intensive while many firms have moved their plants to Mainland China recently. World Air Cargo Forecast 2004/2005 by Boeing shows that the demand of air cargo will be increased up to three times in the future 20 years with an average annual growth rate of 6.2%. Many evidences indicate the importance of air freight. Past studies merely applied the discrete choice model on air carrier choice or directly analyzed the aggregate demand. Little research incorporated the demand-supply interaction into air routes and frequencies programming. This study assumes shippers in specific industry choose air cargo carrier by minimizing the total logistics cost. This study then constructs a demand model to examine how the characters of products, the urgency, shipping fare, inventory cost, shipping time and distance affect international firms’ choices on air carriers. Grey model is used to estimate the air freight demand of each industry. Considering the changes in industrial structure, this study forecasts the air cargo demands on different routes for various firms in different industries. In addition, a supply model is constructed to determinate route frequencies and the unit basic shipping charge for air carriers with demand-supply interaction. A case study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model using data available from C.K.S international airport and industrial economics data base in Taiwan. The results show that shippers with the shorter delivery distance put more emphasis on shipping charge. However, they will prefer choosing the air cargo carrier which offers more frequencies when their product value is high. Since the product value of goods transported from Taipei to Anchorage in US is high, therefore, shippers on this route usually emphasize on the inventory cost and choose high-frequency air cargo firms. The predicted demand using the proposed model is shown to be more accurate than those without considering the changes in industrial structure. Moreover, the proposed model is demonstrated to yield more profit than the model that does not consider demand-supply interactions. Consequently, the results of this study not only indicate that the route frequency programming model for air cargo carriers with demand-supply interaction is practicable, but also provide decision-support tools that forecast the air freight demand and profit as well as determine route frequencies and unit basic shipping charge for air cargo carriers.