再生能源、經濟、環境、和能源安全的關聯性-從風及太陽能發電大國驗證

Abstract

再生能源的技術持續精進導致成本大幅降低，除了對環境有一定程度的正面影響，也可有效紓解能源安全問題，由其是極度依賴能源進口的我國，再生能源的發展更是重要。再生能源和經濟、環境、能源安全的關聯性分析及預測資訊，是政府制定綠能策略及民間發展綠能產業的重要參考指標。先前學者多採用總再生能源作跨國間的探討分析，而再生能源的型式很多：如風能、太陽能、地熱等，跨國探討總再生能源會存在綜合分析(meta-analysis)的異質性估計問題，但鮮少有研究針對單一型式的再生能源作探討。由於風能和太陽能是台灣最具開發潛力的再生能源，本計畫創新採用單一型式的再生能源(風和太陽兩種能源)，在全球風能及太陽能發電大國利用追蹤型資料分析探討及預測。本計畫分三年完成。 第一年分別探討風和太陽能源、非再生能源和經濟成長的關聯性，提出在不同屬性國家(工業國及非工業國)，制定不會反向影響經濟成長，包含能源安全的綠能策略規劃之建議；第二年探討油價波動、經濟成長及環境保護對發展風和太陽能源的影響，在不同屬性國家之異同，進而提出相對的綠能策略規劃之建議。並和先前學者採用總再生能源的結論作比較，來評估本計畫提出的分析及歸納方法的性能；第三年創新建構線性-非線性混合類神經網路模型，對篩選出的風能大國或太陽能大國的發電量作向前十年的預測，整合三年的結果，對有潛力發展風和太陽能的政府及企業界具有前瞻性的貢獻。

Renewable energy technology continuing to be improved leads to significant cost reductions, in addition to have a positive impact on the environment, which can effectively alleviate the energy security issues. Since Taiwan is heavily dependent on energy imports, the development of renewable energy is important. Analysis and forecasting of renewable energy, economy, environment, and energy security is an important reference for the government developing green energy policy and for private sector planning the green energy industry. However, there are many renewable energy types, such as wind, solar, geothermal. Previously, most of scholars explore the total renewable energy for cross-country analysis. Few studies explore the single type of renewable energy. Investigate the total amount of renewable energy exists heterogeneity estimation problem in meta-analysis. It cannot be easily solved. Since wind and solar is the most potential for development of renewable energy in Taiwan, this project will use panel data to perform correlation analysis between wind or solar renewable energy consumption, economic growth, CO2 emissions, and energy security, and to forecast wind and solar power. We plan to complete this project in three years. In the first year, we plan to explore the relationship between wind or solar energy, non-renewable energy, and economic growth, and to propose policies for wind or solar energy production and energy security strategy with no negative impact on economic growth for different attributes countries (industrial countries and non-industrial countries). In the second year, we will explore the relationship between wind/solar energy and CO2 emissions, and analyze the substitutability between wind or solar energy and oil price. The suggestions without negative impact on economic growth will be proposed for the development of wind and solar power in the different attributes countries. In third year, we plan to construct a hybrid of linear and nonlinear neural network model, which will be used for forward forecasting of wind and solar energy generating capacity for the selected top 10 wind and solar energy countries. Combination of three-year research results will have a forward-looking contribution to the government and enterprises of the potential for the development of wind and solar energy.