Browsing by Author "Huang, Yu-Che"

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A Grey hybrid model with industry share for the forecasting of cargo volumes and dynamic industrial changes
(2020-01-02)
Hsu, Chaug-Ing
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Huang, Yu-Che
;
Wong, Ka Io
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運輸與物流管理系註：原交通所+運管所
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Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
The importance of ocean shipping for international trade forecasting is growing due to the specialization and evolution of industrial sectors around the world. Classic approaches for cargo volume forecasting, such as time series and casual methods, may have poor performances if the data size is small with large fluctuations. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model based on the Grey forecasting models and an industry share transformation technique. The hybrid model is particular useful for problems when there are dynamic changes in the industry share and the sample size in historical dataset is small. Using a case study of cargo export and import by industry between Taiwan and North American, the proposed model shows good forecasting performances. The findings can be useful for the marine carriers in responding to the dynamic industrial changes.
Contagion Effect in International Trade After the Japanese 311 Earthquake
(2018-01-01)
Huang, Yu-Che
;
Hsu, Chaug-Ing
;
Wong, K. I.
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運輸與物流管理系註：原交通所+運管所
;
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
This study investigates spatial contagion on trading markets when an industrialized country is stricken by a natural disaster. We present a test for contagion effects on the cargo trading among the major trading partners. The test is based on a comparison of the correlation coefficients of transnational trade linkages in industrial cargo volumes before and after a disaster. Using the Japanese 311 earthquake in 2011 as a case study, the results show that spatial contagion is observed for neighboring countries exporting to Taiwan. It also found that the occurrence of contagion effect depends on the industrial market share of the linkages, and the contagion effect disperses over time.