Browsing by Author "Ku, Hao-Hsiang"

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Designing intelligent disaster prediction models and systems for debris-flow disasters in Taiwan
(2012-04-01)
Kung, Hsu-Yang
;
Chen, Chi-Hua
;
Ku, Hao-Hsiang
;
資訊管理與財務金融系註：原資管所+財金所
;
Department of Information Management and Finance
Effective disaster prediction relies on using correct disaster decision model to predict the disaster occurrence accurately. This study proposes three effective debris-flow prediction models and an inference engine to predict and decide the debris-flow occurrence in Taiwan. The proposed prediction models are based on linear regression, multivariate analysis, and back-propagation networks. To create a practical simulation environment, the decision database is the pre-analyzed 181 potential debris-flows in Taiwan. According to the simulation results, the prediction model based on back-propagation networks predicted the debris flow most accurately. Moreover, a Real-time Mobile Debris Flow Disaster Forecast System (RM(DF)(2)) was implemented as a three-tier architecture consisting of mobile appliances, intelligent situation-aware agents and decision support servers based on the wireless/mobile Internet communications. The RM(DF)(2) system provides real-time communication between the disaster area and the rescue-control center, and effectively prevents and manages debris-flow disasters. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.