Browsing by Author "Ou, Chungwei"

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A fuzzy polynomial fitting and mathematical programming approach for enhancing the accuracy and precision of productivity forecasting
(2019-06-01)
Chen, Toly
;
Ou, Chungwei
;
Lin, Yu-Cheng
;
工業工程與管理學系
;
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management
Forecasting future productivity is a critical task to every organization. However, the existing methods for productivity forecasting have two problems. First, the logarithmic or log-sigmoid value, rather than the original value, of productivity is dealt with. Second, the objective functions are not consistent with those adopted in practice. To address these problems, a fuzzy polynomial fitting and mathematical programming (FPF-MP) approach are proposed in this study. The FPF-MP approach solves two polynomial programming problems, based on the original value of productivity, in two steps to optimize accuracy and precision of forecasting future productivity, respectively. A real case was adopted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. According to the experimental results, the proposed FPF-MP approach outperformed six existing methods in improving the forecasting accuracy and precision.