Browsing by Author "Tsai, Hsiang-Chih"

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FMS patterns: Penetration vs. traffic substitution in different groups of countries
(2008-03-01)
Mao, Chi-Kuo
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Tsai, Hsiang-Chih
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Chen, Chun-Mei
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管理科學系
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經營管理研究所
This paper studies the issue of fixed to mobile substitution, or FMS, which in recent years has become a significant trend. FMS occurs in two ways: one is the effect of a shift of traffic from fixed line to mobile; the other is the effect on fixed line penetration of the growth of mobile subscriptions. These two effects are called traffic substitution and penetration substitution, respectively. This paper, based on data from 1997 through 2004, finds that different substitution effects are taking place in different economies. In the more developed countries (G7 and NIE) FMS models mainly focus on 'traffic substitution'. However, in the emerging economies (ASEAN and BRIC) FMS patterns mainly focus on 'penetration substitution' in association with the income effect. Policy implications on information economics are drawn from the above phenomena. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Income, affordable and threshold effects on FMS in the developed and developing economies
(2008-10-01)
Chen, Chun-Mei
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Tsai, Hsiang-Chih
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Mao, Chi-Kuo
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經營管理研究所
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Institute of Business and Management
This paper studies the effects on fixed to mobile substitution (FMS) that has evolved into an essential industry trend. Based on data from 1997 through 2005, three kinds of effects, income, affordable and threshold, are derived from various FMS patterns in developed and developing economies. The income effect is the prerequisite for the two other effects. For the G7 and new industry economies (NIE) (Taiwan, Singapore, H.K and S. Korea), the 5% income effect threshold is crossed and the mobile penetration rate climbs up rapidly. However, for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC),(1) most of these developing economies have experienced only the income effect. When mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) comes close to or drops lower than fixed line ARPU, the mobile penetration rate begins to increase and the affordable effect appears. As the mobile penetration rate begins to grow, it does not at first affect fixed line growth. The threshold effect happens only when the mobile penetration rate crosses a critical mass threshold; then the growth of fixed line penetration will decline or stop. Once mobile substitution occurs, the traditional paradigm of fixed line as the universal service obligation (USO) is no longer valid and the rules must be changed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.