Browsing by Author "Wong, Ka Io"

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A Grey hybrid model with industry share for the forecasting of cargo volumes and dynamic industrial changes
(2020-01-02)
Hsu, Chaug-Ing
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Huang, Yu-Che
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Wong, Ka Io
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運輸與物流管理系註：原交通所+運管所
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Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
The importance of ocean shipping for international trade forecasting is growing due to the specialization and evolution of industrial sectors around the world. Classic approaches for cargo volume forecasting, such as time series and casual methods, may have poor performances if the data size is small with large fluctuations. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model based on the Grey forecasting models and an industry share transformation technique. The hybrid model is particular useful for problems when there are dynamic changes in the industry share and the sample size in historical dataset is small. Using a case study of cargo export and import by industry between Taiwan and North American, the proposed model shows good forecasting performances. The findings can be useful for the marine carriers in responding to the dynamic industrial changes.
An Analysis of Car and Motorcycle Ownership in Macao
(2013)
Wong, Ka Io
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運輸與物流管理系註：原交通所+運管所
;
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
Reducing automobile dependency is one of the key challenges in the development of a sustainable transportation system. However, to evaluate the effectiveness of a policy, it is necessary to understand the factors that would influence the choice behavior of travelers. In this paper, the impacts of urban characteristics to the household vehicle ownership level for cars and motorcycles in Macao are investigated. A discrete choice approach is used to estimate the number of vehicles that a household would own using disaggregate household survey data. The result reveals that whereas income has positive effect on both car and motorcycle ownerships, the demographic attributes of the residential locations have different effects to the ownerships of the two vehicle types. We also propose that the motorcycle ownership should be represented at a personal decision level instead of a household level.