臺灣地區人壽保險市佔率影響因子之實證研究

Abstract

本研究應用迴歸分析(Regression Analysis)，針對2004至2010年間共計三十三家臺灣地區人壽保險公司進行資料分析與檢定，利用普通最小平方法（ordinary least squares, OLS）與移動平均(moving average，MA)進行函數推估，再依統計檢定驗證假設之正確性，探討人壽保險公司理賠率、成立年限與本國外商公司別等變數，分別對市佔率之影響。由於誤差項具有高度自我相關故本研究以移動平均模型進行迴歸分析。 藉由資料分析得知：在本研究期間內，人壽保險公司之理賠率對成立年限等變數與市佔率具顯著正向影響。其中外商公司則對市佔率具顯著負向影響。經實證分析得結論如下：在合理範圍內，適度提高人壽保險公司理賠率，可使公司市佔率嚴格遞增，達到擴張市佔率的效果，而公司成立年限將影響消費者對其信賴程度的觀感。而外商公司的品牌迷思與市佔率的關係，於本研究蒐集的之資料期間，並無顯著相關性。

This study focuses on life insurance companies in Taiwan, and tries to find out the causality between market share and various variables such as the claim ratio, the period since establishment, and whether or not the company is foreign-invested. There are 33 companies included, and panel data from 2004 to 2010 are collected. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method and moving average (MA) method are employed in this study to test each hypothesis. Since the error term is highly self-correlated, moving average (MA) method is employed to conduct regression analysis. According to the result, during the period analyzed, the claim ratio and the period since establishment impose a significant positive effect on market ratio while the foreign investment does not significantly lead to a higher market share. Thus, within reasonable condition, an appropriate increase in the claim ratio can expand the market share to a certain degree, and the longer the period of existence, the more the customer trusts the insurance company. On the other hand, there is no significant causality between the brand myth of foreign-invested insurance company and market share.