Browsing by Author "Huang, Yu-Lin"

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Competition, Dedicated Assets, and Technological Obsolescence in Multistage Infrastructure Investments: A Sequential Compound Option Valuation
(2011-02-01)
Huang, Yu-Lin
;
Pi, Chia-Chi
;
土木工程學系
;
Department of Civil Engineering
Multistage investments are common in area-wide developments of privatized telecommunication networks and other complex infrastructure systems. They represent an incremental strategy that maintains flexibility in managing market risks, funding needs, and resource constraints in geographical expansions. Though compound options can be used to valuate multistage investments, their valuation is complex when the project in question requires upfront and interim investments in dedicated assets for future expansions. The problem becomes more complex when infrastructure markets are competitive and the investment in question is prone to rapid technological progress, which quickly makes the currently best in-use technology obsolete. This paper develops a European sequential compound call option pricing model to valuate multistage investments and analyze how competition, dedicated assets, and technological obsolescence influence the value of flexibility in this incremental strategy.
Design professionals' legal risks increased under nature's attack: Chichi Earthquake experience
(2009-08-01)
Huang, Yu-Lin
;
Chang, Shih-Hung
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土木工程學系
;
Department of Civil Engineering
This paper aims to examine increases in professional liability for architectural and engineering (A/E) professionals following quantitative changes in litigation risks after the Chichi Earthquake. The methodology uses t-tests and ANOVA to analyse the impact of the earthquake with regard to (1) the number of A/E litigations, (2) the type of plaintiff, (3) court decisions, and (4) the scope of A/E activities or practices challenged by litigation. Our results showed the risk of liability lawsuits increased significantly, and lawsuits were more persistent after the earthquake. The professional liability risk seemed to intensify in higher courts. The risks of both professional liability and criminal indictment by public prosecutors were increased. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved.
Real-Option Valuation of Build- Operate-Transfer Infrastructure Projects under Performance Bonding
(2014-05-01)
Huang, Yu-Lin
;
Pi, Chia-Chi
;
土木工程學系
;
Department of Civil Engineering
This study assesses the effect of performance bonding on the valuation of a build-operate-transfer (BOT) project by extending the classical Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) call option model. As common features in BOT contracts, a performance bond is a penalty imposed on concessionaires who exercise contractual rights to terminate participation in a project. In the real-option context, termination rights grant concessionaires the flexibility in managing market uncertainties that can increase the valuation of an infrastructure project, but the penalty impairs this flexibility and reduces valuations. A case study numerically illustrates the BSM model and indicates that performance bonding can destroy the flexibility and project valuations inherent in termination rights even when the penalty is moderate. Balancing performance bonds and termination rights is necessary because both are important in establishing and maintaining long-term contractual relationships in privatized BOT infrastructure projects.
台電公司投資計畫之財務可行性評估研究
(2005)
黃玉霖
;
Huang, Yu-Lin
;
國立交通大學土木工程學系
一般專案計畫之財務評估模式的建立，其分析方法多以「現金流量分析法」為基礎，延展作相關財務比率的探討，這是現今最常使用的分析方式。「現金流量分析法」首重於專案資金成本結構的分析工作，根據專案資金來源之比例與成本進行加權計算，求出專案資金之成本，以做為後續財務評估之基準。經由調整後的現金流量表，來估算出每期的現金流量，並透過「折現還本期法」（PB, Discounted Payback Period）、「淨現值法」（NPV, Net Present Value）及「內部報酬率法」（IRR, Internal Rate of Return）等方式進行財務評估，以提供決策者參與投資與否之參考依據。然而此類方式，因需要從事相當的預測工作．常使得評估作業困難重重，且未考慮到投資決策過程中的彈性，將可能使得企業在進行投資決策分析時，在面對投資環境變動的不確定情況下，未能充分掌握與反應真正的投資計畫價值。本研究嘗試應用實質選擇權來分析專案整體的投資價值，來補強財務分析的完整性，進而建構出專案投資的財務預警模式，同時保留「現金流量分析法」之分析資訊以作為參考。之後並運用蒙地卡羅模擬分析搭配實質選擇權，以建構專案計畫之財務預警機制，進而協助台電公司進行電廠投資案的可行性評估工作。