管理決策概念架構之回顧與建議

Abstract

本文以發展一套決策的概念架構爲目的，期望此一架構能爲管理決策的研究與教學定義其宏觀的範疇。本文以Simon (1960, 1977)的IDC三段論決策模型作爲討論的基礎。首先針對決策研究代表性的兩份國際期刊近50年的114篇論文作爲樣本，說明當前決策研究的重點有過於偏向Choice單一議題的傾向；其次再從有關的代表性期刊中篩選17篇以決策程序爲主題的論文，印證IDC模型雖然仍是一具有包容性的概念架構；但爲避免應用與解讀上的分歧，IDC的具體內涵有必要予以進一步定義。因此，本文提出「見識謀斷」四段論的概念架構模型，先將IDC模型中的Intelligence展開成Intelligence與Conception兩個段落，使它成爲ICDC（見識謀斷）四段論模型，然後再將四階段分別展開，發展出一個由四階段八步驟所構成的決策範疇與概念架構。本文並進一步探討這一「見識謀斷」決策概念架構與管理實務的相關性以及它在管理理論的實然面與應然面的意義。

The purpose of this article is to develop a conceptual framework which defines the content and scope of decision-making processes. The article starts with the review of Herbert Simon's classical IDC model. A brief survey, based on a sample drawn from two representative academic journals, is presented first to indicate the fact that the current interests of decision research are overly concentrated on the ”choice” subject. Then an analysis on a set of selected articles (sampled from major leading journals) which focus on the decision-making processes is provided to show that although the IDC model can still serve as a comprehensive framework to wrap-up the respective processes proposed by each of these articles, to avoid the ambiguity on the interpretation of the IDC model, a more explicit definition of the content for each of the IDC steps is required. To serve this purpose, this article first split the ”Intelligence” into ”Intelligence” and ”Conception” two steps which in turn transform the IDC model into a four-step ICDC model, and then specific definition is given to each of the four ICDC steps. This article also shows the descriptive and prescriptive characteristics of the new framework as well as its relevance to the management practices.