The Real-Option Value Contained in Consumers' Initial Purchase

Abstract

對消費者而言，由於首次購買之產品認知價值通常具有高度不確定性，故鑲嵌於首次購買的選擇權價值應不可忽略。本文針對鑲嵌於消費者首次購買的選擇權價值建構一個評價模式。在本文中，鑲嵌於消費者首次購買之實質選擇權包括二項：重複購買之買權與退款保證之賣權。由於此二項選擇權具有互斥性，因而形成一個有趣的評價問題。本模型同時考慮兩項具互斥性的選擇權，並同時考慮了兩項主要風險：即價值估算風險與損壞風險，因而增加了模型建立的困難。除了理論模式之推導，本研究亦提供評價模式之數值分析，進一步釐清模型中各項行銷變數間的關聯。本研究之評價模式說明了上述二項選擇權價值如何產生，以及二者如何相互影響。尤其，當廠商針對新發售的產品，或新開發的特定市場，擬定產品訂價時，本模型可幫助決策者更能掌握上述二項實質選擇權所能提供的附加價值，對於消費者首次購買的產品之訂價能提供有用的參考。

In this paper, we propose a model to evaluate the real options embedded in consumers' initial purchase. Due to high uncertainty of perceived value for initially-purchased products, the real-option values contained in those products would be substantial, and thus should be considered. We fairly value the two real options about consumers' initial purchase, i.e., the repeat-purchase call option and the Money-Back Guarantee put option. The mutually exclusive relationship between the two options leads to an interesting valuation issue. When applied to products involving two types of risks, i.e., valuation risk and breakage risk, mutual exclusion of the aforementioned two options makes model calibration rather challenging. The model expresses how these real options can create added-value for consumers and their interaction effects. In addition to model derivation, this study also conducts numerical analysis to illustrate effects of several factors on the options value. The research can broaden the understanding of consumers' perceived value for initial purchases, and thereby can help management to improve product-pricing decision making, especially in the case of developing a new product or a new market.