利用複雜網路模擬新型流感爆發對科學園區的影響

Abstract

根據世衛組織截至2008年4月30日統計，H5N1流感從2003年起至今全球總計14國確診382例，其中241例死亡，致死率為63%。H5N1目前還在禽傳人的階段，若H5N1病毒發展為像普通流感一樣具有人傳人的傳染性，則可能發生大流行；世衛組織使用了一個相對保守的估算︰全球200萬至740萬人死亡，有可能真正的疫情遠高於此估算。 本論文的電腦建模範圍著重在一個特定的工作區域︰科學園區，而非一個城市或是國家，而本論文模擬的科學園區為竹科、中科、南科此類的大型科學園區，為何要以科學園區來做為主要研究範圍? 因為經濟面影響重大，僅竹科2007年總產值約1.14兆元，就占台灣工業總產值的十分之一。且科學園區在台灣有如科技產業的火車頭，若不保，對於未來科技業的發展必然受阻。 科學園區還有和一個城市或是國家所不同的獨特性，即上中下游產業都群聚在一個特定範圍內，具有多種產業的高度群聚度，日常生活接觸網路的低分隔度，以及人員接觸數量的冪次率分佈；科學園區外來人口多，人員來自台灣各地及外國，常會因回家、出差、旅行而對外連結，若爆發疫情容易在向台灣各地及全世界蔓延擴散，影響之大，不可不慎；所以，我們有必要對新型流感爆發對科學園區有何影響進行分析研究，為避免模擬範圍太大而致研究失真，本研究以竹科為取樣點，探討科學園區的新型流感傳播動態，並評估公衛政策的成效。 我們依竹科工作人員行業人口比例進行抽樣問卷調查，藉以對竹科社會網路做合理的數據設定；利用二分關聯網路、社會分身點概念，來表達人類與場所之間的關聯，從中轉換成新型流感傳播動態電腦模擬模型專用的日常生活接觸網路，與新型流感監測系統專用的場所關聯網路，結合過去流行病學領域用來粗估季節性流感傳播動態的SEIR模型，建立科學園區日常生活接觸網路。 然後模擬季節性流感、新型流感在科學園區的傳播動態，並以台灣區2002~2007年的流感真實通報數據來驗證模型結果，最後模擬公衛政策介入的效果評估，提供衛生決策單位可以及時採用的適當策略，減低新型流感爆發對科學園區的損害，確保台灣經濟成長及科技業發展。

Up to count by will it be April 30 2008, H5N1 influenza from 2003 so far global total 14 country make a definite diagnosis of 382 according to WHO, among them 241 die, the causing death rate is 63%. H5N1 is still at the birds successor's stage at present, if H5N1 virus develops into as with successors of people and infective as ordinary influenza. May happen greatly popularly; WHO has used a relatively conservative estimation: 2 million to 7.4 million persons in the world die, the probably real epidemic situation is higher than this estimation far. The computer of this thesis builds and encloses exemplarily in the area of a specific job emphatically: Science-Park, but not a city or the country, and for the large-scale science park of Hsinchu、Taichung、Tainan in the science park of this thesis simulation, why do it for main research range with the Science-Park? Because influence is great economy, only Hsinchu Science-Park is about NT 1.14 trillion of gross output value in 2007, accounts for 1/10 of total industrial output value of Taiwan. And the Science-Park is in locomotive engine like the scientific and technological industry of Taiwan, if does not protect, must be obstructed the development of the science and technology industry in the future. There is and a city or the different uniqueness of countries in Science-Park, namely go to industry's all clustering of upper and midstream and downstream in a specific range, have height clustering degree of many kinds of industries, daily life contact network low degree of separation, and personnel are exposed to the quantity of power-low distributed; The Science-Park has a large population outsidely, The personnel comes from Taiwan each place and the foreign country, Will often link to the outside because of going home, going on business, traveling. If it is easy to break into the epidemic situation and spread that all parts and the whole world of Taiwan, influence is big, must be cautious. Therefore, our necessary for novel influenza has any influence to analyse and research to the Science-Park to break out, causing the distortion of studying for preventing the simulation range from being too great, this research is clicked in order to take a sample with Hsinchu Science-Park, the novel influenza of probing into the science park propagates the trends, assess the common effect of defending the policy. We carry on the sampling questionnaire survey according to the Hsinchu Science-Park staff profession population proportion, so as to making rational data to set up the social network of Hsinchu Science-Park; Using dichotomize related networks and Social Mirror Identity Concept, is it express mankind and relation of place to come, change into the novel influenza and propagate the special-purpose daily life of simulation model of the dynamic computer and contact the network from it, with the special-purpose related network of place of monitoring system of the novel influenza, combine over the epidemiology field and use and estimate the seasonal influenza to propagate dynamic SEIR model thickly, set up the daily life and contact network of Science-Park. Then the spread trends in the Science-Park of seasonal influenza, novel influenza of simulation, and with the influenza in 2002~2007 of Taiwan district really data verify the result of models, Simulation common to defend result that policy get involved assess, Provides suitable strategy which the hygienic decision-making unit may promptly use, decreases the novel influenza to erupt to the Science-Park harm, guarantees the Taiwan economy growth and the science and technology industry development.