一個以城際接觸網路為基礎的空氣傳染病傳播模型：以新型流感為例

Abstract

台灣疾病管制局的疫情報告顯示，由於H5N1高病原性禽流感病毒的高致死率和快速變種，促使衛生政策決策當局將流感疫苗、抗病毒藥劑及傳染阻絕列為新型流感三大防疫策略。為了評估新型流感流行之可能性與傳播動態，並探討現行公共衛生政策在遏止新型流感擴散的成效，本研究建立一個結合人際接觸社會網路與多代理人系統的新型流感傳播動態之模擬模型。在社會網路層面，我們利用多個彼此連通的行政區域與人口族群來表現符合現代生活模式的日常長短距離移動、空間群聚、區域間交通往來等社會現象。我們應用此模擬模型探討台灣地區新型流感可能的傳播動態，以及各種境外傳入狀況、傳染率及公共衛生政策介入後的疫情發展。此外，我們也模擬多項政策，例如：親密接觸者預防性投藥，以及在不同的啟動機制下，停止上班上課及交通管制等社會政策對傳播動態所造成的效果與差異。

According to the Taiwan Center for Disease Control (CDC), the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 has evolved so quickly and poses such a threat that Taiwanese health authorities have already announced three major control strategies: a vaccine, antiviral drugs, and isolating infected individuals. The author constructed an influenza simulation model based on daily-contact social networks and a multi-agent system to study transmission dynamics and to investigate the potential efficacies of various public health policies. Daily-contact social networks (composed of multiple interconnecting municipalities and individuals) can be used to represent such social phenomena as long-distance movement, daily visits to fixed locations, different population densities, and inter-area transportation. The model was used to simulate a novel influenza outbreak and other scenarios involving different seeding events and interventions – for example, antiviral prophylaxis, social distancing policies or closures for schools and workplaces, and control of inter-area movement.