臺灣國際港區船舶動態管理特性及颱風波浪資料補遺研究(II)

Abstract

本計畫延續94年度之分析結果，利用花蓮港港務局所提供之船隻動態記錄，從波浪之觀測與船舶動態資料分析，於本年度欲建立預警模式予以港灣管理單位做即時的判斷與反應。另外94年度已建立初步之颱風波浪補遺模式，並以此進行模式之測試，由測試結果可獲得較佳的補遺精度，依其結果評估可應用為資料補遺之用。因此，本次計畫將利用類神經網路等技術，建立一個以港灣颱風特性與船隻異動關係之類神經網路模式，並針對颱風動態參數與觀測資料進行統計分析與分類，以期能建立有系統之颱風波浪統計模式及資料補遺模式之修正，進而能提高船隻預警管理之能力。

Following the statistical analysis on the condition related to typhoon？HH？HHs paths and scales in the first year project of a four-year sequential project an ANN alert model of ship escape from Hua-Lien harbor during typhoon period will be developed in this project. The conditions of official annual ship escape reports from 1996 to 2003 are collected and classified into four grades and related to the corresponding typhoon position and scale. Typhoon？HH？HHs path, scale, maximum wind speed and position are the dominant affecting factors to be the input parameters in the proposed ANN model. Another aim of this project is to remedy the possibly missing tide and wave data during the period of an approaching typhoon due to instrument loss or damage. The missing data often happens at the time of the strongest typhoon that can cause the maximum wave heights. Thus, it is very important to evaluate the possible maximum wave height during the period of each typhoon, even when the instrument for waves is beyond work. The integrated ANN model has some functions that are to calculate typhoon？HH？HHs wave, storm surge; to remedy the missing wave or tidal data. The completely developed model in the future can provide the ships in the Hua-Lien harbor with duly alarms for escaping from severe wave impacts. The proposed integrated ANN alarm model can provide a good reference for harbor managements on ship mooring safety and is available for reducing harbor damages due to the typhoons.