考量農業用水之水資源經理方案決策分析

Abstract

農業用水為台灣用水之大宗，由於農業缺水容忍度較民生及產業為高，在乾旱缺水期間，常被要求採取加強灌溉或停灌休耕措施以支援民生或工業用水，但可能對農業生產如糧食等造成影響，因此如何在兼顧農業(糧食安全)與其他用水需求下，決定最佳之水資源經理方案組合，為重要的課題。
本計畫以石門水庫供水區域為研究區域，目前既有之北區水資源經理方案多在解決長期供水問題，然在全球氣候變遷影響下，短期極端缺水事件發生越來越頻繁，且隨著生活品質的提升及高科技產業的發展，對於用水的要求越來越嚴峻，短期缺水可能引發民怨或造成的經濟損失已不可忽視，因此有必要研擬短期應變方案以降低衝擊，故本計畫期能建立一可考量長、短期策略且兼顧糧食安全之整合性水資源經理決策模式，並建議可因應未來供水風險管理之最佳投資組合方案，以供決策之參考。

Agricultural water use water large for Taiwan, because agricultural lack of water tolerate degree to be than people＆apos;s livelihood and industry high, during lacking water in drought of the universe, are often demanded to adopt and strengthened and irrigate or anchor and irritate the measure of lying fallow in order to support the people＆apos;s livelihood or water for industrial use, but may cause influence on agricultural production such as grain,etc., so how to give consideration to agriculture (food safety) With other demands of using water, determine the best water resource manager＆apos;s scheme association, it is the important subject. 
Plan this supply water area for study area, north manager of district water resource large to solve and supply water the problem for a long time scheme that have at present with the intersection of crossdrift and reservoir, but under the influence of climate changes of the whole world, lack water incident and happen more and more frequent extremely in a short time, and with the development of improvement and Hi-Tech industry of the quality of the life, more and more severe to the requirement of using water, the economic losses that may initiate resentment or cause can＆apos;t already be ignored to lack water in a short time, so it is necessary to grind and draft the short-term emergency scheme to strike in order to reduce, so originally plan one and can consider long, short-term tactics and integration water resource manager decision way which give consideration to the food safety to can set up one, and propose that because answer in the future and supply water of the best investment combination scheme of risk management, for decision＆apos;s reference.