臺灣主要港口附近海域長期波浪統計特性及設計波推算之研究(1/4)

Abstract

本研究主要為探討臺灣主要港口附近海域波浪之長期統計特性及設計波之推算，應用港研中心於主要港口所觀測、彙整之歷史波浪資料，進行相關長期性之波浪統計特性探討；另外設計波浪一直是港灣結構時極為重要之設計條件，以傳統之經驗式推算波浪模式與類神經推算波浪模式也相當成熟，若以此兩種方法來推估臺灣主要國際港之颱風波浪後，與實測資料比對即可以極值統計方法推估各重現期之波高及週期，以做為海岸結構物設計時所需之設計波浪條件。

The project aims to investigate the long-term wave statistics at main harbors of Taiwan through extreme analysis on the long-term wave data collected by IHMT. The accuracy of predicted design wave conditions depends on the goodness of samples of typhoon waves and estimators of the parameters in the possible probability functions. Thus two ways are used to estimate the typhoon waves. One is the empirical formula for predicting wave heights, the other is the ANN typhoon wave model. The estimation on the parameters in the functions is decided by the maximum likehood method, least square method and moment method. A suitable probability function for long-term waves and the design wave conditions of some return periods at each harbor of Taiwan will be determined in the project for practical engineering uses.