透過實驗證明為什麼供應鏈Flow改善是如此的困難

Abstract

供應鏈裡有三個重要的flow(flow等於lead time)需要改善縮短: (1)新產品開發flow, (2) 產品生產flow, (3)產品配銷flow. 過去數十年, 數以百計的研究文獻提出各種不同的解決方案想要改善此三個重要的flow, 但是實際結果仍然不好.因此知道真正原因是關鍵因素. 我們認為有兩個重要原因阻礙flow. (1)太多不確定性因素/生產變異/預測不準確. (2)目前管理flow的思維與機制. 那一個才是對的? 我們雖然無法在公司實際做測試, 但是我們可以設計實驗來驗證哪一個論點才是對的. 我們將分別設計三個不同的實驗, 邀請551位業界人士參與實驗, 驗証真正原因.我們期望透過此實驗可以證明真正原因為目前管理flow的思維與機制. 我們也將提出管理flow的思維與機制準則工業界人士參考.

There are three important flows needed to be improved: (1) new product development flow, (2) factory production flow and (3) product distribution flow. Despite numerous academic studies by professors, as well as the development of practical methods by industrial practitioners, poor flows still persists. Consequently, understanding why improving flow is so difficult to achieve and identifying the major barriers to its realization are of priority concern. This investigation identifies two main causes for the difficulties in improving flow: excessive variability/uncertainty/inaccuracy forecast and method of managing flow planning and execution. While it is difficult to identify which of the two main causes is the root cause (meaning should be improved first) in reality, it is possible to conduct virtual tests. This study thus plan to develop three experiments involving three scenarios to gather data supporting which one is the root cause. Thirty-five teams containing 551 participants from local companies will be invited to participate in the experiment. The experimental results expect to indicate that the method of managing flow planning and execution is the root cause of poor flow and should be improved first. Accordingly, criteria of good solutions to speed flow can also be identified.