不同公司治理情境之股權評價：類神經模糊專家系統之應用

Abstract

本研究利用類神經模糊的優點，論證公司治理情境如何影響公司價值，且可改善普通最小平方法（ordinary least squares; OLS）的不足之處。首先，利用因素分析粹取董事會組成與股權結構的主要因素，再以因素分析區分公司特性之差異，將同質特性公司加以聚類，最後，採用類神經模糊專家系統估計Ohlson股權評價模式。實證結果發現，當帳面價值高、異常盈餘高、股權集中度高、經營效率性高、經濟誘因高以及適度獨立性時，大公司之公司價值愈高；但槓桿公司僅在股權集中度高、經營效率性高以及獨立性低時，公司價值明顯隨帳面價值及異常盈餘增加而上升。在缺乏規模經濟的公司，經濟誘因影響帳面價值與異常盈餘對公司價值的關係，當經濟誘因低時，異常盈餘對公司價值的影響超過帳面價值，因此，缺乏規模經濟的公司較可藉由異常盈餘去增加公司價值。在高科技的公司，經營效率性、經濟誘因以及獨立性是影響公司價值的重要變數，當經營效率性高、經濟誘因高以及獨立性低時，帳面價值對公司價值的影響超過異常盈餘。從本研究實證結果發現公司治理的情境會影響公司價值，不同的公司型態各有不同的公司治理因素影響公司價值，我們可藉由類神經模糊專家系統清楚發現公司價值高的公司治理情境。

This study used advantage of Neuro-Fuzzy to discuss that how does the situation of corporate governance impact the firm value in Ohlson model. Neuro-Fuzzy could complete the insufficient of OLS (ordinary least squares) model to estimate Ohlson model. First, we used factor analysis to gather main factors of board component and ownership structure. There are four factors including the concentration of ownership, efficiency of management, economic incentive and independent character. Second, we used cluster analysis to discriminate firm type based on firm characteristics. We find that it has four firm types in this paper. That is including large firm, leverage firm, less scale economic firm, and high technology firm. Last, we used Neuro-Fuzzy to estimate Ohlson model. The finding of this paper indicates as follows. The firm value of large firm is high when high book value, high abnormal earnings, high the concentration of ownership, high efficiency of management, high economic incentive and moderate independent. But in the high the concentration of ownership, high efficiency of management and low independent situation of corporate governance, the firm value of leverage firm increasing depend on book value and abnormal earnings. In less scale economic firm, economic incentive affects the relationship between book value and abnormal earnings reflect to firm value. The effect of abnormal earnings more than one of book value on firm value when economic incentive is low. Thus, less scale economic firms could use abnormal earnings to manipulate firm value. In high technology firms, efficiency of management, economic incentive and independent character are more important variable to affect firm value. The effect of book value more than one of abnormal earnings on firm value when high efficiency of management, high economic incentive and low independent. The findings of this paper demonstrated that the situation of corporate governance influence firm value. There are different variables of corporate governance to affect firm value in distinct firm type. We could find clearly the situations of high firm value through Neuro-Fuzzy analysis.