分期繳費壽險保單解約權之分析與評價

Abstract

近年來，投資型保險商品或分紅保單漸成主流，然而，全球金融風暴後，傳統壽險保單又開始受到市場青睞，不同的是，現行保單之預定利率已不若以往水準。這樣的金融環境與保戶投保態度的改變，亦衍生出另一值得深思議題－若市場利率再度走高，壽險公司固然可避免利差損，但勢必面對保單存續之逆選擇問題。有鑑於此逆選擇問題，本研究將著眼於壽險保單解約權之評價與分析，以反映此問題之隱含成本。相較於先前解約選擇權之研究，本文以過去文獻較少探討之分期繳費不分紅壽險保單為對象，透過精算方法解析此保單解約選擇權之收益型態。此外，我們同時加入利率波動、被保險人死亡率變化及保單忠誠度的考量，採用（Longstaff and Schwartz, 2001）之最小平方蒙地卡法來評價保單解約選擇權價值。本研究發現，受限於解約費用率不得超過25%之法令規範，保單解約權的確形成壽險公司成本負擔，而提高解約費用率或加深保單忠誠度均可相當程度降低此成本。本文評價結果提供了這些觀察的量化分析，此分析則可作為壽險公司保單售後解約風險管控之重要資訊。

In recent years, investment-linked insurance policies have gradually become mainstream and are receiving market attention. This change may be due to the global financial crisis. What is worthy of note is that the scheduled interest rates of current policies are lower than they were in the past. This sort of financial environment, for example, the global financial crisis along with changes in the attitudes of those purchasing insurance, results in another question worthy of deep consideration - if market interest rates rise once again, will a wave of surrender be seen within traditional life insurance policies under low scheduled interest rates? This research will focus on the analysis and valuation of surrender option in life insurance policy. To have a more general comparison, we also consider both the variability of interest rates and the insured's mortality heterogeneity since the surrender option value dramatically changes following the fluctuations of interest rate and the insured's mortality heterogeneity. In addition, the decision of clients to surrender a policy is also entangled with their loyalty toward the insurer. The results show that interest rate and the insured's mortality affect the surrender option and this option increases the cost burden of the insurance companies. However, by increasing the cost of rescinding contracts or increasing customers' loyalty to their insurance companies can reduce the cost burden of companies.