最適再生能源決策綜合性評估模式之研究 － 以風力發電為例

Abstract

因應全球暖化及能源短缺問題，再生能源需求成為世界各國主要政策議題。為了改善溫室效應與人類生存之永續發展，世界各國正積極投入再生能源產業的開發與研究。於再生能源中，風力能源生產具有安全與環保之特點，已成為世界上發展最快的可再生能源，使得各國政府紛紛將風力發電產業列入開發重點。對於風力發電場的興建和風力發電機的安裝更是為了提供一個長期能源生產的重要程序，應當審慎評估。本研究建構綜合性評估模式以選擇開發風場合適的位置與適用之風機。本模型結合解釋結構模型（ISM）、利益，機會，成本和風險（BOCR）與模糊分析網路程序法（FANP）以解決此多準則決策問題，並邀請風能領域專家評估各項風場與風機相關因素之重要性後，即可由模型計算出風力發電場址和機組之方案優先排序值。本研究評估台灣潛在的風場與風機及其預期表現，並提出建議供決策者參考。

In response to global warming and energy shortages, renewable energy demand has become a major policy issue around the world. In order to encounter greenhouse effect and improve sustainable development, many nations are actively involved in the research and development of renewable energy industries. Wind energy production, with its safe and environmental characteristics, has become the fastest growing renewable energy source in the world. Many governments have focused on the development of wind power industry. The construction of new wind farms and the installation of new wind turbines are important processes in order to provide a long-term energy production, and the projects should be carefully evaluated. In this research, comprehensive evaluation models are developed to select a suitable location for constructing a wind farm and to select suitable turbines. The models incorporate interpretive structural modeling (ISM), benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR) and fuzzy analytic network process (FANP). Experts in the field are invited to contribute their expertise in evaluating the importance of the factors and various aspects of the wind farm and the wind turbine evaluation problems, and the most suitable wind farm and wind turbine can finally be generated from the models. Case studies are carried out in Taiwan in evaluating the expected performance of several potential wind farms and wind turbines, and recommendations are provided for decision makers in selecting the most appropriate wind farm and wind turbine.