企業級乙太網路交換器之基礎庫存動態更新模型建立之研究

Abstract

隨著人類科技不斷進步發展，各種新技術的開發與整合讓技術領先的門檻持續降低。也因此台灣科技組裝代工廠（OEM/ODM）之間近年來逐漸被觀察到技術構面的能力差異化不斷縮小；在網路通訊基礎設備：企業級乙太網路交換器專業研發代工廠之間，競爭力提升的焦點更快速轉移至非技術構面之能力。 其中極被重視的一個構面便是作業管理方面關於庫存管理之優劣；因為庫存管理之良窳會直接關聯至企業資金週轉及維持公司妥善經營之能力，更會高度影響未來與客戶長期關係之維繫。若面對的市場需求必需採用備貨生產型之商業活動，客戶需求由完成品存貨所供給；則企業所面對的存貨成本管理壓力與反應能力，勢必將更仰賴精簡及更有效率的基礎庫存設定與檢核機制。 本研究依個案公司2014年4月到2015年3月各週歷史出貨資料，運用第一階段預測模型中因果聯繫法之多重廻歸，推演出需求預測廻歸函數並取得未來13週出貨需求。接著使用第二階段固定期間存貨模型決定基礎庫存與再訂購量。研究結果發現應用兩階段式模型可以協助個案公司在提供相同服務水準下降低平均庫存成本，同時做為物料與生產規劃之參考依據，達到基礎庫存效率最大化。

The continuous evolvement of research and development has gradually reduced the difficulties of obtaining key technologies in business competition, and it is observed that the Taiwan OEM/ODM companies are becoming more identical in technology differentiation. The key winning factors now among OEM/ODM enterprise Ethernet Switch companies are shifting fast to non-technology related dimensions, for example, the capabilities of managing inventory. Good management in inventory can bring successful financial and operational performance to companies, as well as the capabilities in maintaining long-lasting, solid customer relationships. This research predicts the future 13 weeks demand by using multiple regression from causal model of forecasting, followed by setting the re-order point and base stock using the fixed-time period model. As a result, the case company is able to maintain the same service level while reducing average inventory costs, and the model can be used to fine tune the material/production management in order to reach maximum operations efficiency.