金融海嘯後國內證券投資信託基金銷售之趨勢分析

Abstract

2008年金融海嘯發生後對全球經濟造成重大影響，在各國政府紛紛推出救市措施，景氣呈逐漸復甦狀態下，本研究欲瞭解國內證券投資信託基金之銷售趨勢，故透過潛在成長模型分析中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會所公佈2008年至2014年國內證券投資信託基金之銷售量，及各種基金類型之銷售趨勢。 本研究結果顯示，此段期間整體證券投資信託基金銷售量因景氣逐漸復甦而呈開口向上之拋物線，研判應是此段時間，全球經濟負面消息仍舊不斷傳出，投資人信心尚未完全恢復，故並非呈現向上攀升之直線。 另外就各類型基金進行分析後發現，僅有貨幣市場基金銷售量呈開口向上之拋物線，其他類型基金之銷售趨勢並不顯著，其原因應與貨幣市場基金風險較低有關，因自金融海嘯發生以來，整體投資市場仍時有狀況發生，投資人多持觀望態度，隨著市場起伏而調整投資組合，故常利用貨幣市場基金以做為資金停泊之用，而非長期投資獲取資本利得，但也因貨幣市場基金配合主管機關規定，於2010年底前改善貨幣市場基金之流動性，使得改制後之貨幣市場基金因預期報酬較差，銷售量已不若以往，而其他類型基金則因市場變動頻繁，使得銷售趨勢並不明顯。 本研究針對銷售通路(含證券投資信託事業及其委任之銷售機構)、投資人及主管機關三部分提供管理意涵探討。

The global financial crisis that started from 2008 damaged global economies severely. Governments have utilized a variety of intervention policies to restore their financial systems. This study investigates the sales tendency of securities investment trust funds by analyzing the latent growth model applying domestic sales data of securities investment trust funds and sales trends in various types of funds published by subscription amounts collected from Securities Investment Trust & Consulting Association of the R. O. C. during the seven-year period from 2008 to 2014. The empirical results of this study indicate that the sales trend follows the path of a parabola which opens upward rather than a linear growth during the observed period. This may be influenced by the continuously released negative news all over the world during this period, and thus the undermined confidence of investors had not yet been restored. Furthermore, analysis on various types of funds shows that only the sales of money market funds follow the path of a parabola opening upward significantly, while other types of funds do not differ significantly. One of the possible reasons could be the relatively low risk of money market funds in the unstable investment market, so that investors often adjust their asset allocations according to market fluctuations. Consequently, the investors prefer to park their funds rather than long-term investment for capital gains. Nevertheless, the authorities’ regulations have improved the liquidity of money market funds in Taiwan by end of 2010. The anticipated lower return of the restructured money market funds has leaded to the sales declined than ever before. On the other hand, other types of the funds do not show obvious trends due to the frequent changes in the market. This study investigates the management implications in three dimensions: sales channels (including securities investment trust enterprises and their appointed sales agents), investors and authorities.