以脆弱度與回復力觀點建構臺灣城際與海運運輸系統之風險評估

Abstract

社會進步與人口成長使運輸路網日愈繁雜，社經活動更有賴運輸系統連結，運輸系統中斷將導致用路人耗費較高之金錢與時間成本以利用替代運具或路徑完成旅次目的，更有甚者將因受困而被迫取消旅次，所產生直接災損與間接社會經濟損失甚鉅。運輸脆弱度與回復力概念已引起廣泛討論，但仍難產生共識性定義，多數研究考量系統內各元素之空間關聯性，少部分納入元素功能間之相依性，但以巨觀角度將路網、城際運輸及國際運輸之脆弱度及回復力一併考量之研究仍付之闕如。 由於過去文獻多強調在單一系統，並未著眼於城際與國際運輸系統失效所導致的經濟損失。據此，本研究第一年將同時考量客、貨運，建立合適的城際公路及軌道運輸脆弱度與回復力評估模式，及研提改善策略。第二年基於產業鏈概念，以系統方法建立國際海運中港口脆弱度與回復力之指標與相依性，但無涉供應鏈脆弱度與回復力協同策略之分析。第三年發展臺灣地區城際運輸及國際港口之風險管理的目標規劃模式，界定臺灣城際與國際海運整體運輸系統之回復力與相關風險，最終依據結果建議相關策略方案，以為公部門進行資源配置與運輸系統風險評估之參考。

Transportation systems have become more complicated because of social progress and population growth. Numerous socio-economic activities are linked by transportation systems. Along with monetary costs, the costs of travel time of alternatives for users are steeply increased to achieve the original trip purpose due to the disconnected networks. In fact, some users are besieged with disconnection and forced to cancel their trips. The disconnection results in considerable direct damage as well as indirect socio-economic losses. Previous literature discussed the determination of vulnerability and resilience of transportation systems, however, it is difficult to build a consensual definition. Some studies considered the spatial interaction among elements in transportation systems, whereas little research discussed the functional interdependencies. Moreover, the studies combining the vulnerabilities along with resilience of intercity and international transportation based on macroscopic perspective were absent. Previous literatures focused on single system and lacked the economic losses caused by failures of intercity and international transportation systems. Accordingly, this study firstly constructs an appropriate framework to evaluate the vulnerability as well as resilience of intercity highway and railway systems considering passenger along with freight transportation, simultaneously. In the second year, the indicators about maritime vulnerability and resilience as well as interdependencies among them are determined based on industrial chain using systematic approaches. Notably, the collaborative strategies in vulnerability and resilience of supply chain are excluded. A goal programming is developed for assessing the risks of integrated transportation system involving both intercity infrastructures and international commercial ports in the third year. The developed framework is helpful to determine the resilience and risks of integrated transportation system in Taiwan. The improvement strategies generated based on the analytical results could assist government in resource allocation and risk assessment in transportation systems.