新竹地區乾旱特性與農業用水調度之研究 (II)

Abstract

隨著全球氣候變異及暖化效應，導致天然乾旱頻率提高；此外，新水源開發不易且原水成本提高，對新竹地區用水調度之考驗日趨嚴峻，因此本計畫對前人研究成果作一有系統之整理，進行乾旱特性分析，並利用所得之成果，於計畫第二年研擬乾旱緊急時期移用農業用水之相關配合措施。本第一年計畫彙整新竹地區氣象、降雨量、河川流量、地下水等水文資訊、以及水庫蓄水、各標的用水等資訊，另完成新竹地區內各個流量站之流量預測，根據分析結果，建議採用AR(1)模式繁衍流量，此一成果可供相關單位及本研究後續工作之參考。

Because of the global climate change and warming, the frequency of the drought increases .In addition, the development of new water resources is getting difficult and the cost of raw water also increases. Hence, the water resources management in Hsinchn area is becoming harder. In the study, the previous study results are systematically reviewed. The drought characteristics in Hsinchn area are also analyzed, and the results provide the basic information for the transferring of irrigation water. In the first year of this study, the historical meteorological factors, rainfall, river flows, groundwater, reservoir storage, and water demands of different sectors are collected. Also, the 10-day flow forecasts of several discharge stations in Hsinchn area are investigated. According to the analyzed results, the synthetic 10-day flow series generated by AR(1) model is proposed. This synthetic flow data serves the necessary information for subsequent study and the associated authorities.