標題: Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in Taiwan Catchments Based on Statistical Downscaling Data
作者: Chen, Yun-Ju
Chu, Jung-Lien
Tung, Ching-Pin
Yeh, Keh Chia
土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
關鍵字: RCP;Statistical downscaling;Water balance model;Variance;GCM
公開日期: 十月-2016
摘要: This study investigated the streamflow impacts in wet and dry spells using a statistical downscaling projection method to obtain 5 km girds under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Two upstream catchments, the Dahan and Laonong Rivers were selected as the study areas. A water balance hydrological model, also known as the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model, was used to simulate the streamflow impacts. There are 126 projections from 41 general circulation models (GCMs) and 4 RCPs used in this analysis. The analytical results indicate that the streamflow impacts in different RCP scenarios are significant but vary with individual GCM\'s projection. The variance of 20 selected GCMs is close to that of all other GCMs. Typically, more than 60% of GCMs project that in the early 21st century, streamflow in each RCP increases by 0 - 40% in wet spells and decrease by -40 similar to 0% for the Dahan River, but the streamflow increases during both wet and dry spells for the Laonong River. In the late 21st century, the streamflow decreases by 60% during dry spells in the Laonong River. Various predictions for the early and late 21st century show high variance of streamflow impacts. As such, decision makers must plan for reservoir operation and flexible water deployment adaptations during future dry spells.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2016.07.20.01
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/133104
ISSN: 1017-0839
DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2016.07.20.01
期刊: TERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES
Volume: 27
Issue: 5
起始頁: 741
結束頁: 755
顯示於類別:期刊論文