反事實思考對談判情境中首次出價行為的學習效果

Abstract

本研究目的是探討先前談判經驗如何透過反事實思考，進而影響談判者後續的談判行為。本研究進行二次劇本式實驗，第一個研究檢驗談判結果的接近度是否會影響談判者向上式反事實思考的釋義認知。第二個研究是檢驗談判者的向上式反事實思考會如何改變談判者下一回合談判的首次開價行為，產生反事實思考的學習效果。本研究以136位MBA學生為研究樣本，如同預期，我們發現談判結果的接近度會影響地影響談判者的向上式反事實思考，談判結果接近度愈高時會引發談判者愈高程度的向上式反事實思考。再者我們發現，談判者的向上式反事實思考與後續談判行為 (首次開價行為) 間存在正向關係，也就是說，向上式反事實思考的釋義過程會對談判者下一次的談判行為產生學習效果。最後，本研究於結論中針對理論與實務提出相關討論。

The purpose of this study was to explore how prior negotiation experiences influence negotiators' subsequent negotiating behaviors through counterfactual thinking. We used 2 scenario experiments in this paper. In Study 1, we examined whether negotiation outcome closeness affects a negotiator's sense-making of upward counterfactual thinking. In Study 2, we examined whether negotiators' upward counterfactual thinking changes negotiators' first offer in the second-round negotiation to induce the learning effects of counterfactual thinking. 136 MBA students participated in this study. As predicted, we showed that prior experience (i.e., outcome closeness) triggers negotiators' upward counterfactual thinking. Greater outcome closeness activates more upward counterfactual thinking. Moreover, we found that negotiators' upward counterfactual thinking was positively related to their subsequent first offer in the next negotiation, that is, sense-making of upward counterfactual thinking could produce certain learning effects for negotiators. We conclude with a discussion of the study for theorists and practitioners.