利用灰色理論探討企業業績之影響因子－以某壽險公司為例

Abstract

在大企業中，若能了解到何種指標對於業績有較重要的幫助，即可知道該如何分配時間與資源於更重要的目標上面。關聯度分析大都採用統計方法，但在面對樣本數較少的情況下便無法得到更精準的結果，而灰色理論適用於計算總數量不大之數據，並有能加入多樣性的重要影響因子及不同時間之特性，因此本論文以灰色理論進行影響因子之關聯度分析與評估。本論文使用了台灣底下某大型金控公司下之壽險業的財務業績報表進行分析，而研究結果顯示，灰色理論相較於統計方法更為接近實際業績影響因子排行，其斯皮爾曼等級相關係數於年報大於迴歸分析20%，而若計算十二個月之月報表排行，則大於迴歸分析3%，可見灰色理論能更精準適用於單一時間點之多因子分析。

In an enterprise, its performance can be measured by the performance indicators. How to find these indicators is an important research issue. The relational analysis is usually using statistical methods. However, with a small sample size, statistical methods cannot find a very accrual result. The Grey Theory is than a good method to be used on this kind of situation. Moreover, it can also be used to analysis the data statement with plural factors and times. The thesis therefore is using the Gray Theory to analyze and predict the performance and its weighted factors. The research is using the 2014 financial data statement from a Taiwanese insurance company under a large financial holding group. The result shows that the Gray Theory method has closer to real correlation situation of the company. The Gray Theory’s Spearman's Rank Correlation accuracy is 20% more on yearly report data, and 3% more on monthly report data than regression analysis. The result prove that the Gray Theory is more accurate to be used on single timing data with multiple factors.