中國與台灣二氧化碳排放量關聯性分析

Abstract

溫室氣體的排放是造成全球變暖的主因，而溫室氣體最主要係來自於二氧化碳（CO2）的排放，因此二氧化碳的排放是造成全球暖化的最主要因素。在本研究中，我們首次應用Lotka-Volterra方程式分析中國和台灣的二氧化碳排放量之間的動態競爭關係，進而探討不同能源耗用對二氧化碳排放量的影響。研究結果發現，中國與台灣二氧化碳累積排放量之間係呈現片利共生的關係，僅台灣之二氧化碳排放量受中國二氧化碳排放量影響而增加，然中國二氧化碳排放量並未受到台灣二氧化碳的排放量影響。此外亦顯示，中國與台灣二氧化碳累積排放量並無均衡點存在。而在模型精確度方面，從R-square與Adjust R-square值得知Lotka-Volterra模型配適度極佳。由於本研究Lotka-Volterra模型除了考量單一國家地區氧化碳累積排放量之預測之外，亦兼顧中國與台灣之經濟競爭合作關係，在二氧化碳累積排放量預測方面，Lotka-Volterra模型的精確度亦相當優異，由於企業日趨重視環境會計，本研究亦提供會計領域環境會計認列的重要參考。最後，依據研究結果提出中國與台灣共同發展太陽能發電及減量科技的共同開發等二氧化碳減量建議，期能供有關單位列入政策考量時参考。

Global warming is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases. Most of the emitted greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), so carbon dioxide emissions are the most important cause of global warming. This work is the first to apply Lotka–Volterra equations to analyze the dynamic competitive relationship of CO2 emissions between China and Taiwan. We further investigate the effects of different energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that competitive relationship of CO2 emissions between China and Taiwan exhibits a kind of commensalism, in which the CO2 emissions in Taiwan increase as CO2 emissions increase in China, while the amount of CO2 emissions in China is hardly affected by the CO2 emissions in Taiwan. Furthermore, it is shown that the competition between the CO2 emissions in China and in Taiwan does not have a dynamic equilibrium point. The R2 values show that Lotka-Volterra model can explain CO2 emissions very well. The Lotka-Volterra model used in this work takes into account not only the emission amount forecast of a single country/region, but also the competitive and cooperative economic relationships between Taiwan and China. The model also performs well in forecasting emission amount. As enterprises increasingly emphasize environmental accounting, this study provides important insights in the field of environmental accounting.