引進再生能源之關係遠景：適合永續市場發展之政策

Abstract

新技術的導入是挑戰性的過程，它包含整個技術系統的轉換並且影響整個產業(包含現行者及其他相關產業)。技術系統的轉換是複雜的現象，它包含多層面向並且已經被深度研究。本論文聚焦專注在學者較少關注的兩個面向： 一、對新興技術的知識基礎的質化評價以及； 二、現行者的角色以及新進入者的策略性行為對新技術發展的步調的影響。 為展演本論文研究目的，我們選用生質能源技術的導入作為代理再生能源技術的轉換。全球競相追逐永續的再生能源，為求降低碳排放量以及增進能源效率的解決方案。生質能源技術是再生能源選項之中早期發展的技術。我們以知識基底的評價，研究現今生質能源知識。我們提出探索-利用指標表示知識基底的學習型態，並演示它如何隨時間演變。除了探索-利用指標之外，我們評價方法亦包含四個從專利引用網絡而來的指標(規模大小，成長性，累積性以及相依性)，五個指標完整的構成我們的評價系統。 我們選擇俄羅斯生質能源技術做為整個演示的基礎。在俄羅斯，儘管生質能源是其一重要的再生能源技術，因為強勢現行者企業的存在，生質能源技術依舊不易發展。 我們進一步比較俄羅斯，德國與中國的生質能源技術發展。德國被視為運用再生能技術的成功先行者之一，而中國則是積極推廣再生能源技術的後進者。研究結果顯示，俄羅斯的生質能源知識基礎缺乏德國具有的增進式特製規格以及中國技術發展的增速成長率。俄羅斯的生質能源知識基礎顯示出巨幅依賴於外國的應用活動。相異於德國以及中國，俄羅斯國內大型現行者企業欠缺探索生質能源的興趣。儘管充足的知識基底對重要技術的發展是關鍵的，但是任何新能源技術的最終目的仍是市場擴散。 當技術已經被普遍認可之後，政府政策成為生質能源技術導入市場的重要或決定性的角色。證據顯示，政策通常無法造成持久性產業，也就是當失去大量政府支持之後依舊能永續經營的產業。依據比較俄羅斯與德國、法國與英國的生質能源技術發展歷程之後，我們提出以下命題，現行者與新進入企業在產業之間的競合行為成為技術導入成功與否的關鍵。

Transition of technological systems is a complex phenomena that includes many aspects and has been studied extensively before. This dissertation focus lies in two particular aspects that still lack attention from scholars: (i) the qualitative assessment of knowledge base for emerging technology; (ii) the role of incumbents and new entrants’ strategic behavior on the pace of new technology development. Introducing renewable energy is even more challenging than other technologies since it requires strong government support. In this dissertation we show the importance of policy fit on different stages of technology introduction, namely formation of (i) knowledge base and (ii) market, for sustainable market development. For the illustrative purpose we chose biofuel technology introduction as part of renewable energy technology transition. In the world’s race towards sustainability renewable energies became part of the solution for lowering carbon emissions and increasing energy efficiency. The biofuel technology was one of the oldest among renewable energy choices. Our knowledge base assessment sheds the light on the existing biofuel knowledge base. We propose exploration-exploitation index that shows the type of learning in the knowledge base and show how it changes with time. Additionally we propose assessment based on four indicators from patent citation network (size, growth, cumulativeness, and interdependence), that together with exploration-exploitation index completes our knowledge base assessment. We chose Russian biofuel technology for the illustration based on the reason that despite being one of most prominent renewable technologies in Russia, it is still struggling in the presence of very strong incumbent players. We compared it to biofuel technology development of Germany, one of successful leaders in adopting renewable energy, and China, an aggressive latecomer at promoting renewable energy. The results show that Russia’s biofuel knowledge base lacks both the increasing technological specialization of that in Germany and the accelerated growth rate of that in China. Russian biofuel knowledge base shows a big dependence on foreign applicants’ activity. Unlike in Germany or China large domestic incumbents seems not to be interested in exploring biofuels. Although sufficient knowledge base is vital for new technology development, the ultimate goal for any new technology is successful market diffusion. While it is widely acknowledged that government policy play important if not decisive role for renewable technology introduction to market, the evidence show that often policy fail to shape the sustainable industry that can survive without substantial government support in the future. We propose that cooperative and competitive behavior between incumbents and new entrants in the industry hold a key to successful technology introduction. We illustrate this proposition on Russian biofuel technology development compared to Germany, France and United Kingdom. The results show that simultaneous engagement of incumbents and new entrants in competition and cooperation helps to build a sustainable market for renewable energy.