以產業角度並運用DEMATEL方法探討台灣半導體封測產業未來發展之因素

Abstract

台灣代工產業以晶圓製造及封裝測詴包辦了全球半導體製造業的龍頭位置，因此半導體產業於全球半導體供應鏈中台灣一直扮演著舉足輕重的角色。封裝製造是台灣IC產業中最早切入的領域，自今已經歷半世紀的歷練，由於整合元件製造公司（IDM）委外代工的比例增加、產能利用率的提升、智慧型手機與帄板電腦等需求推動下，2004年台灣IC 封裝測詴產值已達到 4,539 億元，預估2015年封裝測詴產值更會有4.9%的成長。但隨著fabless對台灣封裝測詴的依賴減少，加上大陸封測廠江蘇長電正式收購新加坡封測廠星科金朋，形成坐四望三的局勢，而且大陸封測業者在先進封裝技術上積極投入，呈現急起直追局面，未來大陸業者在封裝測詴市場對台廠形成的威脅也只是時間的問題。 本研究將利用陳正男與譚大純（1998）針對Michael Porter所提出的鑽石模型修改建構之「五角鑽石模型」為基礎，利用問卷調查方式收集有封測產業背景之專家意見，最後透過決策實驗室分析法（Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL）建構評估模式，找出其五大構面間因果相互影響程度，提出如何讓台灣裝測產業保持國家競爭優勢的地位。

Taiwan is the leader in semiconductor manufacturing industry for wafer fabrication, assembly & test. In Taiwan, semiconductor global supply chain plays pivotal role. Assembly & test is the first manufacturing industry established in Taiwan and had been through for half a century. Due to increase in IDM outsourcing the capacity utilization has improved as demand for smart phones and tablet PCs ramps up. The annual output value of assembly & test has reached NT$453.9 billion in 2014 and estimated to have 4.9% growth in 2015. However, some of the fabless company already starting to reduce the volume forecast of assembly & test in Taiwan due to competitions from manufacturers in China. JCET-China acquired ChipPAC-Singapore and they became one of the top 4 in global assembly & test manufacturing. China assembly industry have also started to involve in advanced packaging technology. In the future, the threats from China will happen in just a matter of time. This research will use the “Five-Pointed Diamond Model” which was revised by Dr. Cheng, Cheng-Nan and Dr. Tang, Da-Chen’s base on Michael Porter's diamond model. The research will collect the result from experts who have assembly & test background and make use of Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to identify which of the five elements in causal interaction level will help Taiwan assembly & test industry maintain national competitive advantage status.