數位貨幣對貨幣政策的影響

Abstract

面對數位貨幣的發展，不論是以去中心化為主的私人數位貨幣，或是採中央銀行發行的法定數位貨幣，通貨朝網路計算的方向演變必定成為未來貨幣發展之主流。尤其當大多數應用的發展是朝去中心化的方向設計時，傳統商業銀行的中介功能會面臨極大的挑戰，進而影響各國中央銀行貨幣政策(Monetary Policy)的施行效果，對一國之貨幣供給及需求、利率方向與通膨的穩定能力造成不良的影響。本論文希望藉由對數位貨幣的種類加以分類及定義，接著深入探討去中心化加密數位貨幣的特性、原理、技術並收集市場交易數據作為分析基礎，最後配合各國中央銀行對未來數位貨幣發展的政策傾向，進而對去中心化數位貨幣替代法定貨幣的可行性進行分析並研判加密數位貨幣對中央銀行貨幣政策的各種影響。根據收集的市場數據顯示，未來整個區塊鏈資產的成長動能會跳脫以數位貨幣取代法定貨幣的相關應用，而著重在有助於各種經濟及市場效率提升的相關產業，首先受到衝擊的必定會是金融服務相關產業。我們認為去中心化數位貨幣無法取代法定貨幣，未來流通範圍有限，只在某些特定範圍內作為法定貨幣的互補工具。去中心化數位貨幣對貨幣政策普遍具有負面之影響，如削弱貨幣政策工具的有效性、降低貨幣總計數的準確性、削弱支付體系的監督能力和損害鑄幣稅收入等，但對提升貨幣流通的效率有正面的影響。

In the face of the development of digital currency, whether in the form of the decentralized private currency or central bank issued fiat money, networked computational transformation will become the mainstream of the currency innovation in the future. Especially when most applications are designed in the concept of decentralized mechanism, the traditional intermediary functions of commercial bank will be challenged greatly, thus affecting the effect of monetary policy of central banks and furthermore impacting on the country’s money supply and demand, the direction of interest rate and stability of inflation. By starting with classifying and defining the types of digital currency, next analyzing its characteristics, principles, techniques and empirical market data, finally exploring different central banks’ policy orientation about digital currency, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the feasibility of the replacement of legal tender by decentralized digital currency and finally to examine the impact of the cryptocurrency on central bank’s monetary policy. We think that the decentralized digital currency can’t replace legal tender and circulates only in limited scope as a complementary tool of cash. In general, decentralized digital currency has negative impacts on monetary policy, such as weakening the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments, reducing the accuracy of monetary aggregates, weakening the supervisory capacity of the payment system and damaging the seigniorage income, but has a positive impact on improving the efficiency of currency circulation.