政府政策對新興能源技術擴散與社會影響的評估

Abstract

為了達成溫室氣體減量目標，許多國家愈來愈強調將創新技術導入能源系統，需要建構一個環境友善的消費及生產系統。其中，最重要的關鍵因素是消費者願意及有能力加入綠色消費行為。然而，氣候變遷是一個長期性的議題，減碳目標及技術擴散不可能一夕達成，需要長期的演進。徹底性的技術變動一開始導入使用的成本很高，若無其他利基條件，以自發性(autonomic)技術演進導入，通常會遇到很多市場擴散的障礙，需要相當漫長的時間等待。當既有技術或產品汰舊換新時，將產生所謂的技術鎖定(technology lock-in)效應，因此，需要政府政策即早推動新技術投資，避免既有技術鎖定後，降低未來新技術的市場擴散機會。 當嚴峻的減碳目標再加上政府政策誘因推動，可誘發(induced)新興技術的利基市場形成，鼓勵廠商願意投資新興技術。透過政府政策推動的雙重效應（技術學習效應及市場擴散效應），使得現在高成本的新興能源技術在未來有可能變成具吸引力及經濟可行。因此，各種新興能源技術未來相對的邊際減量成本(MAC)高低變動，將影響新興能源技術被選用的排序組合及政府預算執行的優先順序。近年來，愈來愈多的新興運輸技術，例如：油電混合車、插電式油電混合車、純電動車、氫能車等逐漸走向商業化，提供運輸部門龐大的節能與二氧化碳(CO2)減量潛力。因此，運輸部門未來存在顯著的新興技術推動及需求拉升的技術擴散效果，對於長期溫室氣體減量成本及策略選項組合也會產生戲劇性的影響。 本研究以「政府政策」為研究主軸，連結三大議題：「電動車輛市場擴散」、「減碳效益評估」與「MAC評估方法」，並建構研究主軸與議題之間的因果關聯性。本研究主要的研究目的及貢獻：(1)建構以消費者投資決策觀點的市場擴散模式，建立符合資源公平分配的政府綠色奬勵政策實施的動態調整機制；(2)探討影響運輸部門新技術市場擴散的重要因素，評估不同市場擴散情境對於減碳目標達成的貢獻度影響；(3)釐清氣候變遷議題分析資訊使用的目的性及適用性，降低決策資訊使用的偏誤認知。

In order to achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, many countries are increasingly emphasizing the introduction of innovative technologies into energy systems, which need to build an environment-friendly consumption and production system. The most important key factor is that consumers are willing and affordable to join the green consumer behavior. However, climate change is a long-term issue, carbon reduction targets and technology diffusion can not be achieved overnight, which need long-term evolution. The cost of a radical technological change is very high at the beginning of the introduction, and if there are no other niche conditions, it is often a long time to wait for the autonomic evolution of the technology, which will encounter many obstacles of market diffusion. When the existing technology or product is replaced, the technology lock-in effect would occur. For avoiding the existing technology is locked to impact the new technology market diffusion opportunities, government policy needs to push new technology investment early. When the severe carbon reduction target, coupled with government policy incentives, can induce the formation of niche markets for emerging technologies, and encourage manufacturers to invest in emerging technologies. The double effect of government policies, which included technical learning effect and market diffusion effect, makes it possible for high-cost emerging energy technologies to become attractive and economic in the future. As a result, the future changes of the margin cost (MAC) between various emerging energy technologies will affect the portfolio of emerging energy technologies and the priority of government budget execution. In recent years, more and more emerging transport technologies, such as hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, gradually heading for commercialization, providing huge energy saving and carbon dioxide reduction in the transport sector. Therefore, significant diffusion effects of emerging technologies in the transport sector, which included technology-push and demand-pull, will have a dramatic impact on long-term greenhouse gas reduction costs and strategic portfolio options. In this study, the "government policy" was the main study core, connecting with three issues, which are the "electric vehicle market spread", "carbon benefit assessment" and "MAC assessment method", to construct the causal relationship. The aim and contribution of this research are as follows: (1) Constructing the market diffusion model by the view of consumer investment decision-making, to appraise the dynamic adjustment mechanism of government green reward policy for the equitable distribution of resources. (2) To explore the important factors influencing the diffusion of new technologies in the transport sector and to assess the impact of different market diffusion scenarios on the contribution of carbon reduction targets. (3) Clarifying the purpose of usage and applicability of information while analyze climate change issues by various MAC method, and reducing the bias of decision-making information.