七大工業國的核能/新再生能源消耗量，實質GDP，及二氧化碳排放量之因果關係

Abstract

本文主要欲驗證七大工業國於1980至2013年間之潔淨能源(核能/新再生能源)，非潔淨能源(化石能源)與實 質經濟成長間之動態因果關係。本文運用時間序列面板資料，採用共整合檢定、誤差修正模型、因果關係檢定和其他相關計量方法來找出這些變數之間的關係。 七大工業國之檢定結果顯示，CO2正向影響化石能源消耗量，以及化石能源消耗量負向影響新再生能源消耗量，也就是化石能源消耗和新再生能源存在替代關係，隨著各國對於新再生能源的重視，化石能源會逐漸減少，而二氧化碳排放量的減少會導致整體七大工業國化石能源消耗減少。再者，GDP負向影響新再生能源消耗量，說明儘管七大工業國國內生產毛額下降，也不減少國家新設新再生能源設備，反而增加，繼續發展潔淨能源。長期而言，二氧化碳排放量單向影響新再生能源以及化石能源消耗，GDP單向影響新再生能源以及化石能源消耗，而新再生能源消耗與化石能源消耗兩者存在雙向長期因果關係。 由本研究可以得知核能消耗量負向影響CO2，也就是當核能消耗增加，會影響二氧化碳排放量減少，而CO2負向影響化石能源消耗量，表示當二氧化碳排放量增加時，大家對於化石能源的使用就會減少，再者，核能消耗量負向影響化石能源消耗量，說明核能和化石能源消耗存在替代關係，當核能使用增加，化石能源消耗就會減少。長期而言，二氧化碳排放、化石能源消耗、GDP、核能消耗四者存在雙向長期因果關係，相互影響。

This thesis explores the linkage relationship between economy, environment, clean (renewable/nuclear) and non-clean (fossil fuels) energy in group of seven (America, Canada, England, France, Germany, Italy, Japan) over the period 1980-2013. In this paper, we use panel data, co-integration test, error correction model, causal relationship test and other related measurement methods to find out the relationship between these variables. The results of the test show that CO2 positive impact fossil fuels, and fossil fuels negative impact new renewable energy, that is, fossil fuels and new renewable energy exists an alternative relationship. Those countries pay more attention on new renewable energy, their fossil fuels will gradually reduce. While the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will lead to the G7 to reduce energy consumption. Moreover, GDP negative impact NRE, indicating that despite the G7’s gross domestic production decline, they won’t reduce to build new renewable energy equipment. On the other hand, they increase clean energy equipment development. In the long term, CO2 affect the new renewable energy and fossil fuels consumption. There is one-way impact of new renewable energy and fossil fuels, and two-way long-term causal relationship between new renewable energy consumption and fossil fuels. It can be seen from this study that nuclear energy consumption negative effects on CO2, that is, when nuclear energy consumption increases, CO2 emissions will decrease. Besides, CO2 negative impact fossil fuels consumption, said that when the CO2 emissions increase, the amount of fossil fuels consumption will decrease. And, nuclear energy consumption negative impact fossil fuels consumption, indicating that nuclear energy and fossil fuels exist an alternative relationship. When the use of nuclear energy increased, fossil fuels will be reduced. In the long run, there are two-way long-term causal relationship between CO2, fossil fuels, GDP and nuclear energy consumption.