影響台灣地區購屋房貸因素之研究

Abstract

我國社會民情「有土斯有財、房地產可永久保值」的觀念深植民心已久，幾乎人人終其一身都至少要擁有自己所屬的房地產，因此房地產事業在我國歷久不衰。由於購買房地產所需資金金額龐大，大多數購屋族都向銀行貸款始能補足資金，近年來台灣地區房地產景氣好轉，房價不斷攀升，央行統計的房貸餘額也隨之不斷創新高，因此房地產相關訊息及新聞成為普羅大眾所關心之議題，本文研究的動機即為探討台灣地區總體經濟變數與購屋房貸金額之關係。

本論文首先透過既有文獻回顧過去探討房地產議題，再以複迴歸分析台灣地區各總體經濟變數與購屋房貸金額之關係，各變數係採自民國83年7月至101年3月期間每月資料，包括五大銀行承作購屋貸款金額、五大銀行新承做放款利率、失業率、建照執照樓板面積、廣義貨幣供給額(M2)、重貼現率、消費者物價總指數、平均薪資成長率及土地增值稅，以五大銀行承作購屋貸款金額為依變數，餘八個變數為自變數，探討對購屋貸款金額的影響。

實證結果顯示五大銀行新承做放款利率、失業率、建照執照樓板面積、 消費者物價總指數、土地增值稅等經濟要素與購屋貸款呈現顯著關係。 研究結論可提供購屋者，房地產投資人參考。

In Chinese traditional socieity,the concept of "possessing a territory will give him its wealth,and real estate values can be permanently preserve"is deeply rooted in everyone’s mind for a long time,almost everyone all his life at least has himself real estate,so the real estate industry in our country is very enduring.Due to purchasing real estate is need a vast sum of funds,most of the house buyer must apply for loans and then have enought funds to pay. In recent years,the real estate boom in Taiwan improved,rising house prices,the central bank statistics of the home mortgage balance continue to record high,so the real estate information and news has become general public concern issues,the motivation of this study is to research the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the amount of home mortgage in Taiwan.

First, this paper through the existing literature to review the issue of real estate,then use multiple regression to analysis the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the amount of home mortgage in Taiwan.The variables are collected from July 1994 to March 2012 period,including the five banks amount of home mortgage, the five banks new mortgage interest rate,unemployment rate,Construction Permit and floor area,monetary aggregates(M2),rediscount rate,consumer price index,average salary growth rate,and land value increment tax,then use the five banks amount of home mortgage for the dependent variable,the remaining eight variables for the independent variable,to research the influence of the amount of home mortgage.

The empirical results show that the variables such as the five banks new mortgage interest rate, unemployment rate,construction permit and floor area, consumer price index, land value increment tax are significantly related to the amount of home mortgage.Research conclusions can be provided for the house buyer,real estate investors reference.