從教務與財務指標建構台灣私立大專校院危機預警模式

Abstract

自從高教政策轉向開放後，新設大學逐年增加，原專科學校、技術學院也紛紛升等改制為技術學院及科技大學，大專校院校數在60 年至75學年間長期維持於96~105所，而後逐年增加至民國105學年度的158所，其間最高曾至164所，短短的三十年間增加了超過50所。學生人數也由75學年度的44萬人增加至105學年度的131萬人之多，增加的幅度高達近二倍之多，高等教育已由原本的菁英型轉變為普及型。在學校數大幅增加的狀況下大專校院增加的數量及招生的額度幾近超過高中生生源數，供過於求的狀況已導致招生缺額年年昇高，加上出生率的降低，學校的招生愈來愈困難，近幾年已有學校因經營不善而停招、合併甚至退場，依教育部對大專校院大學一年級學生人數預測，到117學年度將由104學年度約30萬的大學一年級新生人數大幅減少為約16萬人，台灣高等教育已面臨極大的危機，大專校院的品質提昇及創新轉型勢在必行，無法持續經營的學校也該逐步退場。 本研究收集台灣私立大專校院101~104學年度教務及財務相關指標資料，以因素分析萃取影響變數，再以羅吉斯迴歸分析構建學校的危機預警模式，以期找出在這波高教危機中可能遭遇退場危機之私立大專校院。 本研究以因素分析萃取出「X1:學校規模」、「X2:風險承擔能力」、「X3:營運能力」、「X4:資本投入」四個影響學校可能發生危機的因素構面，羅吉斯迴歸分析結果，此四個因素構面均為顯著，且整體的預測正確率為84%。其中「X1:學校規模」為影響學校是否可能發生危機的重要因素，顯見學校能具有一定之規模才能有足夠之收入以維持校務正常運作及品質的提昇。

Since the transition to open policy, the new university has increased year by year in the Higher Education. Some colleges or technical ones have transformed to the Technology Academy and University of Science and Technology at the same period. The number of universities maintained between 96 to 105 from 1971~1986, and then increased to 158 when 2016, once, the highest number was up to 164, which means, increased by more than 50 in 30 years. The number of students has increased from 440 thousand at 1986 to 1.31 million at 2016, increased by more than two times than before. We can say the Elite Type Higher Education has changed to the Universal Type Higher Education. The amount of enrollment almost was more than the number of high school students when the number of universities increased significantly. The gap has increased year by year due to oversupply. Moreover, the reduction in the birth rate caused the difficulties of enrollment got worse. In recent years, universities have been poor for business and then began to stop enrolling, to look for mergers and even to exit. According to the prediction of the Ministry of Education on the number of new students of universities, there will be about only 16 million at 2028, which means will decrease more than 140 thousand than the number at 2015. Taiwan's higher education has faced a great crisis. It is imperative to improve the quality of university. Universities that can’t continue to operate should be gradually withdrawn. This research collected the data of both the academic affairs indicators and the financial indicators of Taiwan's private universities, within 2012 to 2015, to construct the Crisis Warning Model of Taiwan's Private Universities with Logistic Regression Analysis using the affecting variables after Factor Analysis. After the Factor Analysis, the research extracted four Factor dimensions which may affect the possible crisis of Private University: "X1: School Scale", "X2: Risk Capability", "X3: Operational Capability", "X4: Capital Investment". Results of Logistic regression analysis tells the four factors are significant and the overall prediction accuracy rate is 84%. The "X1: School Scale" is a key factor in the Crisis Warning Model of the private school. Schools with a certain scale surely can have sufficient income to maintain the normal operation and quality of the school.