台灣民營太陽能電廠的發電績效

Abstract

台灣政府為求達成非核家園之目標，設定於2025年之再生能源發電量佔比達20%，其中太陽光電裝置容量欲達到20GW，以台灣電力公司提供之資料，2016年台灣之再生能源發電量佔比5.1%，而結至2017年2月底，台灣太陽能發電系統總安裝之容量約為0.98GW，代表未來太陽能發電系統裝設量會持續增加，有鑑於此，為達成政府之設立目標，太陽能電廠之發電績效便為業主、政府及投資者所著重之部分。本篇研究利用太陽能發電電腦線上監測系統SPV (Solar Photovoltaic)之歷年數據，針對十座民營太陽能電廠進行發電績效分析，分別坐落於台灣北部、中部及南部。主要使用三項指標做為評鑑太陽能電廠之績效表現，依序為性能比 (Performance Ratio，PR)、平均發電量 (Daily Mean Yield，DMY) 及產能利用率 (Capacity Utilization Factor，CUF)，並且以各年度及各月份之數值變化作呈現，藉此瞭解太陽能電廠因長期運轉期間之發電量及性能變化，以作為業主、政府及未來投資者對於日後評估投資設置太陽能電廠之參考。 研究結果發現，在十個電廠中，有七個電廠之PR較低 ( DMY並非特低)，其中有五個電廠運作不到五年，且皆為大型電廠，倘若以併網時間開始計算，一開始PR值為1，表示模組於五年內衰退8-17%，即便符合目前業界必須大於0.72之標準，然在國際認證標準之規定下–光電模組效率10年不得降超過10%，20年降20%以內，此些電廠並非表現良好。除此之外，PR 值每年趨勢為冬季 1-2月表現較佳而夏季 5-8月表現較差，表示即便有強烈日照，發電表現並非相對高。而在2015年及2016年之9月份開始之發電表現不良，其原因主要為颱風侵襲造成發電停擺或損壞，導致從9月份開始至10月份之表現皆不佳，對於在台灣建置太陽能電廠時，其承受風速之強度為重要考量，且在計算投資報酬時，必須將一定風險計算進去。

In order to achieve the goal of non-nuclear homes, Taiwan government sets that the renewable energy generation accounted for up to 20%, of which solar photovoltaic capacity to 20 GW in 2025. According to the information from Taiwan Power Company (TAIPOWER), the renewable energy generation accounted for 5.1% in 2016, and the installations of solar power system is about 0.98 GW in the end of February 2017. The current situation represents the installed capacity of solar power system will continue to increase in the future. In view of the trend and achieving the goal of government sets, the power generating performance of solar power plants will be the focus for the power plants owners, government and investors. This study analyzes the performance of generating efficiency of 10 private solar power plants in northern, middle and southern Taiwan by using the historical data from online solar monitoring system. In order to evaluating the performance of solar power plants, this study employs three major indexes, performance ratio (PR), daily mean yield (DMY) and capacity utilization factor (CUF) to present the yearly and monthly performance. After using and viewing the trend of PR, DMY and CUF to evaluate and understand the trend performance during the long-term operation, the results could be the reference for government and personal future investment in solar power plants. This study found that there are 7 power plants have lower PR, 5 of 7 start to run less than 5 years and these 5 power plants are large-scale. The PR decline by 8-17% in 5 years. In addition, the trend of yearly PR shows that the value is higher in winter (January and February) than the summer (May to August) means that the stronger sunshine does not absolutely have the greater generating performance. Furthermore, on the September in 2015 and 2016 have poor performance of power generation, the main reason is the typhoon attack caused the system be shut down or damaged to affect the performance in September and October. Consequently, the intensity of enduring the strong wind should be considered carefully for building the solar power plants in Taiwan and must calculate the risk of natural disasters into the investment and evaluation.