中國債務結構與風險剖析

Abstract

本文旨在探討中國債務問題，中國近年來經濟進入新常態，經濟增長由2010年的高速增長10.06%快速下降至2016年的中高速增長6.7%，經濟體系中整體債務隨著潛在增長的放緩而繼續上升。雖然目前的改革可能會逐步促使經濟和金融體系轉型成功，但卻不太可能阻止整體債務進一步增加。

本研究預期未來幾年中國經濟體系整體槓桿將進一步上升，而改革計畫有望減緩但不大可能阻止該趨勢。鑒於實現當前增長目標存在愈來愈多的結構性障礙，中國政府將繼續實施政策刺激，以維持經濟強勁增長的目標，而這樣的刺激將導致整體經濟體系的債務持續增加。

隨著中國經濟成長的減速，中國官方的GDP增長目標也在逐漸下調，政府的重點逐步由增長速度轉向增長品質。但是，由於強勁的經濟增長對當前的十三五計畫十分關鍵，並且政府也認為這對維持經濟和社會的穩定性至關重要，尤其是在今年秋天即將召開「十九大」的前夕，「唯穩」將是政府的首要之務。

根據BIS的資料，2016年底，中國的政府、家庭與非金融企業整體債務占GDP比達256%。雖然此債務水準在先進國家中並不罕見，但這些國家的人均收入水準、金融市場深度以及市場的深度均高於中國。此時，若將中國當前的債務指標與次貸時期的美國與歐債危機時的歐洲相比，可以發現中國的債務水準已經相去不遠，而也代表中國的經濟體系的確是出現問題了。

本研究根據經濟學理的分析方式，建立了一套可靠的系統來檢視中國的債務水平，以便使讀者易於評量中國整體的債務水平。同時，本研究亦指出多項風險衡量指標，以歷史經濟數據做為相對的標竿指標(Benchmark)。最後，我們注意到中國政府已採取措施控制整體債務的增長，然而，各項用以去槓桿與降低金融風險的改革，最終成效仍將取決於政府的決心。

The main purpose of this essay is to discuss the debt problem in China. We all know GDP growth in China has decelerated in recent years from a peak of 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016,and the economy-wide debt is continuing to rise as potential growth slows. While ongoing progress on reforms is likely to transform the economy and financial system over time, it’s not likely to prevent a further material rise in economy-debt.

We expect that economy-wide leverage will increase further over the coming years. The planned reform program is likely to slow, but not prevent the rise in leverage. The importance the authorities attach to maintaining robust growth will result in sustained policy stimulus, given the growing structural impediments to achieving current growth targets. Such stimulus s will contribute to rising debt across the economy as a whole.

Due to the deceleration of China GDP Growth in recent years, official GDP growth also adjusted downward gradually and the authorities’ emphasis is progressively shifting towards the quality rather than quality of growth. However, the adjustment is essential to the current Five Year Plan and appeared to be considered by the authorities as important for the maintenance of economic and social stability, especially on the eve of 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in fall this year.

According to BIS’ data, the economy-wide debt of the government, household, and non-financial corporation rose to 256% of GDP at the end of 2016. While such debt levels are not common in advanced countries, they tend to be seen in countries which have much higher per capita incomes, deeper financial markets and stronger institution than China’s. But when you compare some debt indicators in China right now with those indicators in the period of Subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis, and you will find there’re definitely some problems in China now for us to discuss.

Based on economic theories, this essay establishes a reliable system to exam the debt level in China which makes the reader can easily excess the valuation about the debt situation in China. In the meantime, we also point out a lot of comparable risk indicators for the purpose of be the benchmark for reference here. Finally, we notice the China authorities have taken steps to reduce the rising economy-wide leverage, and we expect the reforms about to offset the rise in debt and financial risk is somehow up to the self-determination of China.