模糊多目標線性規劃法用於森林生物質 轉生質燃料廠選址問題之研究

Abstract

地球上大部分的能源都是有限的，由於全球石化能源逐漸耗竭及原油價格高漲，尋找永續再生性的新能源已成為國家賴以生存及發展經濟所必須努力的目標。近年來使用森林生質能取代化石燃料越來越受到重視。森林生質能具有產量大、可再生、清潔燃燒的優點。同時，森林生質能源工廠能提供廠址鄰近區域大量的工作機會。然而，過去的生質能源廠選址問題大多以成本、汙染為目標，鮮少考慮過社會層面的問題，並且大多以單一目標式(成本)呈現，其餘目標都乘上懲罰值併入成本計算，目標式受到懲罰值係數影響，難以得知是多是少。以及為了將問題便於以線性規劃軟體求解，將參數設為固定值，鮮少考慮環境的不確定因素。因此，本研究欲提出一生質能源廠選址模型及方法，將工廠位置選擇在最有利的位置，以滿足生質能源需求量，生質能源廠的規模將會受到限制。本研究增加考量了社會問題中的工作機會目標，透過生質能源廠所提供的工作機會有效改善社會問題。同時，結合模糊理論(fuzzy theory)解決環境的不確定性，由於天候因素可能影響生質能源廠營運天數以及原物料產量，生質能源的需求受到石化燃料價格的影響常處於不確定的情況下，而工作機會量也會因為工作能力差異而有所不同。方法方面將問題以多目標的方式求解，我們首先將透過地理資訊系統獲得地理資訊模擬工廠候選位置以及原物料生產地，藉此建構出生質能源廠選址決策模型，再以模糊多目標線性規劃(fuzzy multiple objective linear programming; FMOLP)進行模型求解，求得各目標式最佳解和整體最佳解，藉此可以看出相互衝突的目標式之間進行抉擇(tradeoff)；同時，藉由本研究的實驗:敏感度分析、問題比較、方法比較，可以進一步了解本篇研究問題和方法與過去研究的差異性，以及未來若執行時重要的影響因素。

Most of the energy on Earth will be exhausted. As the fossil fuel being used up and the rising price of oil, seeking for renewable energy has become the goal .Recent years, using biomass energy instead of fossil fuel is getting more attention. Biomass energy is advantages of large output, renewable and clean combustion. However, the previous researches mostly focus on cost and pollution, the social aspect is rarely considered. Most of the studies were presented with a single objective (cost) and the rest of the objective by the penalty value as the cost, so it is difficult to know whether it is large or small. Lastly, in order to solve the problem with software, most of the studies would set parameters as fixed value, and the environment uncertainties were rarely considered. Therefore, this study proposes a model and method which chooses the most advantageous facility location to satisfy the demand, and the scale of the biomass energy facility will be limited. The job opportunities offered by the biomass energy facility can improve society problems effectively. The environment uncertainties are also added. As the different factors may affect the number of days of biomass energy facility operated, the demand of biomass energy, and the amount of job opportunities. About the method: First, we will simulate the candidate location of facility by the geographic information system to construct the decision model. After that, Use fuzzy Multiple Objective Linear Programming (FMOLP) to solve the problem with multi-objective way by six steps. Then we could find out the optimal solution and the conflict between objectives. Via the experiment sensitively analysis, problem comparison and method comparison could further understand the differences between the previous study and our research, also the key factors that affect while executed in the future.