瓶頸模式應用於宅配之動態定價研究

Abstract

近二十年來，有鑑於全球貿易與經濟發展快速、國人的生活型態逐漸改變，而消費型態更是趨向多元的發展。其中，伴隨網路科技的進步及電子商務的發達，網路購物對於消費者行為有著巨大衝擊與影響。而網路購物的市場佔有率逐漸超越並取代傳統購物模式。 近年來，越來越多文獻致力研究電子零售商或宅配物流產業如何透過動態定價的方式來解決尖離峰需求量差異大的問題。由於科技及技術日新月異、發展快速，在需求量的預測上更為貼近實務，並且電子零售商在變更產品價格的成本相較於過去低很多，不斷進步的決策輔助工具，也提高了動態定價的實用性。 本研究首先，針對宅配物流等候系統做完整分析，並且透過此等候系統延伸發展出三種電子消費者收貨之行為模式，其分別為提早接受到貨物、準時收到貨物以及延遲收到貨物三種型態，藉此三種型態，分別建構等候系統之成本函數，其中包含提早成本、延遲成本以及等候成本，並透過此三種成本導出宅配物流業者的均衡成本。接著根據均衡成本守恆的原則，建構宅配物流業者最佳收費模式。 本研究中，提供一種新的成本選取方式，根據宅配物流業者的行為模式，而有不同之結果。藉此將大幅減少因為延滯成本所造成之誤差，能更加貼近於宅配物流實際作業情形，提升本研究之參考價值。

Over the past two decades, in view of the rapid development of global trade and economic development, people's life patterns gradually change, and consumption patterns have become more diversified. Among them, with the progress of Internet technology and the development of e-commerce, online shopping is creating a huge impact on consumer behavior; where the online shopping market share gradually surpasses and replaces the traditional shopping model. In recent years, more and more literature has been devoted to the question of how electronic retailers or home logistics industries can solve the problem of large peak demand differences through dynamic pricing. And with the rapid development of technology, the actual use of demand forecasting has increased and electronic retailers’ cost of altering product prices has decreased compared to the past. In addition, continuous improvement of decision-making tools also improved dynamic pricing’s practicality. In this study, first a complete analysis of the waiting system of the house logistics is done, and through this waiting system further extending it to three kinds of electronic consumer goods delivery behavior models, consisting of early receipt, on time receipt and delayed receipt of goods. After that, cost function of the waiting system is constructed, which includes the early cost, the delay cost and the waiting cost, and the equilibrium cost of the house logistics industry is derived through these three kinds of costs. Then, according to the principle of balanced cost conservation, the home logistics operators with the best charging model is constructed. In this study, a new cost selection method is provided depending on the behavior pattern of the home logistics industry, which in turn achieved different results. These results are valuable references which will greatly reduce errors caused by delays and can act closely to the actual operation of residential logistics situations.