評估技術性貿易壁壘政策：以印尼為例

Abstract

在全球化自由經濟的風潮下，各國(特別是發展中國家)仍會實施技術性貿易壁壘(technical barrier to trade, TBT)以維護其國民健康、環境與國家安全、或經濟發展。本論文藉由印尼的實證資料以差異中差異法(difference in differences). 或稱雙重差分法)評估政府實施技術性貿易壁壘政策以尋求產業發展的有效性，分析在以設定鋼鐵產品的品質標準作為技術性貿易壁壘下對印尼國內鋼鐵產品產量與進口的影響。分析結果發現國內產量與此政策的實施呈正相關，但是進口僅在短期呈負相關。本論文使用的方法與分析結果可提升政府相關政策策的決策品質

This study investigates the effectiveness of a government policy on technical barrier to trade (TBT). TBT is a type of non-tariff commonly used by governments to protect human health, environmental safety, and national security. We particularly focus on the ex-post analysis of implementing technical regulations, standards, and conformity assessment procedures as TBT to boost the domestic production capacity and to substitute the imports. Difference in differences (DD) model is used as an analytical tool. A data set of steel product import and production in Indonesia between 2002 and 2015 is analyzed. The result shows that implementing the TBT policy leads to increase of domestic production; however, it can only decrease the import in short run, while in long run, it could not hamper the import flow. The analysis can provide feedback and serves as a decision aid to enhance the quality of the government policy making.