半導體產業垂直整合與垂直分工營運模式競爭分析

Abstract

半導體產業包含三種主要的營運模式，整合元件製造(Integrated Device Manufacturer, IDM)、無晶圓廠(fabless)及晶圓代工(foundry)。整合元件製造公司提供設計與製造服務，無晶圓廠公司的服務聚焦於IC設計服務，晶圓代工公司則提供專業製造代工服務。在產業的競合發展下，無晶圓廠公司與晶圓代工公司形成fabless-foundry策略聯盟的產業鏈垂直分工(Vertically-Separated)合作模式，並與屬於垂直整合(Vertically-Integrated)模式的IDM而形成競爭狀態。由2000-2014市場營收，fabless與foundry成長率大於IDM，且市場生態也產生大的改變。本研究針對半導體產業競合關係進行分析，包含不同營運模式之間的競合關係、成長能量、受市場變動影響以及長期衡點點分析。分析方法採用了Hodrick-Prescott filter，濾除原始營收數據中的循環波動訊號，取得成長趨勢訊號，然後應用Lotka-Volterra模型來分析這些產業營運模式之間的競合關係。結果顯示，無晶圓廠模式和晶圓代工模式彼此間具有共生關係，而IDM模式與fabless-foundry模式彼此之間則存在完全競爭關係。產業鏈垂直整合與垂直分工模式雖然處於競爭狀態，但從長期來看二種模式將會共存於市場，並具備(54.6％, 45.4％)的市場占有率的均衡點。

Three major business models are found in the semiconductor industry, namely Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDMs), fabless, and foundry models. By semiconductor supply chain, IDM is the vertically-integrated model which designs and manufactures IC products. The strategic alliance of fabless and foundry companies is the vertically-separated or fabless–foundry model. Recently, the revenue growth rate of the vertically-separated model has been considerably higher than that of vertically-integrated model. One interesting question raises is whether the vertically-separated model will ultimately dominate the semiconductor industry or grow only to a certain extent. To investigate this, we adopted the Hodrick–Prescott filter to remove the cyclic signal from original revenue data and then applied the Lotka–Volterra model to analyze the competition and cooperation relationships between pairs of these business models. The results reveal that the fabless and foundry models have a mutualistic relationship, whereas IDM competes with both the fabless and foundry models. The vertically-integrated and vertically-separated model compete, but their revenues should ultimately arrive at an equilibrium point. In the long term, the vertically-integrated and vertically-separated models should coexist; the ultimate market share of the vertically-integrated model is predicted to be approximately 54.6% and that of the vertically-separated model approximately 45.4%.